Multilevel Models of Fertility Determination in Four Southeast Asian Countries: 1970 and 1980
Multilevel Models of Fertility Determination in Four Southeast Asian Countries: 1970 and 1980
复制标题
四个东南亚国家生育率测定的多层次模型：1970 年和 1980 年
作者：
C. Hirschman;P. Guest
使用微观数据从1970年和1980年的人口普查，我们指定和测试多层次模型的生育率决定四个东南亚社会，印度尼西亚，马来西亚半岛，菲律宾和泰国。社会背景按各省代表妇女地位、儿童作用和婴儿死亡率的特点编制索引。假设这些背景变量对当前生育率有直接和间接（通过个人社会经济特征）影响。背景变量占生育率个体差异的一个适度但重要的份额，约占生育率地区间差异的一半。妇女地位的相关变量，特别是现代部门的就业，对降低生育率的影响最大，也最一致。基于其他背景变量的结果为初始假设提供了混合支持。
Using microdata from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, we specify and test multilevel models of fertility determination for four Southeast Asian societies—Indonesia, Peninsular Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Social context is indexed by provincial characteristics representing women’s status, the roles of children, and infant mortality. These contextual variables are hypothesized to have direct and indirect (through individual socioeconomic characteristics) effects on current fertility. The contextual variables account for a modest but significant share of individual variation in fertility and about one-half of the total between area variation in fertility. The women’s status contextual variables, particularly modern sector employment, have the largest and most consistent effect on lowered fertility. The results based on the other contextual variables provide mixed support for the initial hypotheses.