Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970-2005
Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970-2005
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DOI：
10.1007/s13524-016-0496-4
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发表时间：
2016-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Xu, Zengwang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Logan, John R.;Issar, Sukriti;Xu, Zengwang
飓风对沿海地区的人口造成持续的危害。本研究估计了 1970 年至 2005 年美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区飓风对人口变化的影响。地球物理模型用于构建独特的数据集，模拟这一时期袭击该地区的 32 场飓风造成的风害和风暴潮的空间范围和强度。多元空间时间序列模型用于估计飓风对人口变化的影响。研究发现，在县遭受风害之后，人口增长会在连续三年内显着下降，特别是在遭受风害程度较高的情况下。风暴潮与飓风过后一年人口增长减少有关。模型扩展表明，白人和年轻人口的变化比黑人和老年居民的变化受到的影响更直接、更强烈。贫困率较低的县对人口的负面影响更大。飓风对不同人口群体的不同影响被解释为分段撤离——一种分段复原力的形式，其中优势人口群体更有可能摆脱或避免陷入危害，而社会弱势群体的选择较少。
Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970-2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal-a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm's way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices.