Epidemiological models to assist the management of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
Epidemiological models to assist the management of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
复制标题
协助管理高致病性禽流感的流行病学模型。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Jong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Stegeman;A. Bouma;M. Jong
近几十年来，流行病学模型越来越多地被用作设计高致病性禽流感等传染病管理方案的工具。预测模型用于模拟各种控制措施对感染传播的影响;分析模型用于分析来自疫情爆发和实验的数据。这些模型中的一个关键参数是繁殖率，它表明病毒在人群中传播的程度。使用分析模型从真实的数据获得的参数可以随后用于预测模型以评估控制策略或监视程序。这些模型的使用的例子中所描述的当前文件。
In recent decades, epidemiological models have been used more and more frequently as a tool for the design of programmes for the management of infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza. Predictive models are used to simulate the effects of various control measures on the spread of the infection; analytical models are used to analyse data from outbreaks and experiments. A key parameter in these models is the reproduction ratio, which indicates to what degree the virus can be transmitted in the population. Parameters obtained from real data using the analytical models can be used subsequently in predictive models to evaluate control strategies or surveillance programmes. Examples of the use of these models are described in the current paper.