Future projection of the health and functional status of older people in Japan: A multistate transition microsimulation model with repeated cross-sectional data.
Future projection of the health and functional status of older people in Japan: A multistate transition microsimulation model with repeated cross-sectional data.
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DOI：
10.1002/hec.3986
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发表时间：
2021-11
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Bhattacharya J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kasajima M;Hashimoto H;Suen SC;Chen B;Jalal H;Eggleston K;Bhattacharya J
准确的未来人口健康预测对于规划快速老龄化人口的未来医疗保健需求至关重要。多状态转换微观模拟模型，如美国未来老年人模型，满足了这一需求，但需要高质量的面板数据进行校准。我们开发了一种替代方法，放宽了这一数据要求，使用重复的横截面代表性调查来估计适用于日本人口的多状态转换列联表。我们使用五波政府健康调查计算出生队列性别特异性合并症患病率。结合估计的合并症患病率和死亡记录信息，我们确定健康状态的转移概率。然后，我们构建了一个截至2013年的60岁及以上的虚拟日本人口，并进行了微观模拟，以预测2046年的疾病分布。我们的估计复制了政府对人口金字塔的预测，并与过去十年流行病学研究中报告的合并症的实际患病趋势和疾病发病率相匹配。我们对心血管疾病的未来预测表明，其患病率低于静态模型的预期，反映了最近疾病发病率和死亡率的下降趋势。
Accurate future projections of population health are imperative to plan for the future healthcare needs of a rapidly aging population. Multistate‐transition microsimulation models, such as the U.S. Future Elderly Model, address this need but require high‐quality panel data for calibration. We develop an alternative method that relaxes this data requirement, using repeated cross‐sectional representative surveys to estimate multistate‐transition contingency tables applied to Japan's population. We calculate the birth cohort sex‐specific prevalence of comorbidities using five waves of the governmental health surveys. Combining estimated comorbidity prevalence with death record information, we determine the transition probabilities of health statuses. We then construct a virtual Japanese population aged 60 and older as of 2013 and perform a microsimulation to project disease distributions to 2046. Our estimates replicate governmental projections of population pyramids and match the actual prevalence trends of comorbidities and the disease incidence rates reported in epidemiological studies in the past decade. Our future projections of cardiovascular diseases indicate lower prevalence than expected from static models, reflecting recent declining trends in disease incidence and fatality.
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