A reexamination of the existence of environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: evidence from G20 countries
A reexamination of the existence of environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: evidence from G20 countries
复制标题
重新审视二氧化碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在：来自 G20 国家的证据
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-016-2618-0
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hao, Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Luo, Guangyu;Weng, Jia-Hsi;Hao, Yu
二氧化碳作为主要的温室气体，在过去的二十年里得到了深入的研究。本文针对20国集团是否存在二氧化碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)进行研究。20国集团是由19个国家和欧盟的政府和央行组成的国际论坛。为了深入分析这一关系，本文还使用了另外四个解释变量--两个贸易开放条件、第二产业增加值与GDP的比率和人口密度--来考察它们是否会对EKC的存在和形态产生影响。在实证研究中，使用了1960-2010年(50年)和1990-2010(20年)两个跨国面板数据集，并使用了面板数据固定效应和广义矩估计方法。测算结果表明，EKC确实存在于G20成员整体之中。为了调查EKC的存在是否取决于经济增长水平，G20国家被进一步分为两个小组：发达国家和发展中国家。虽然估计结果表明发展中国家在20年和50年期间都存在EKC，但没有令人信服的证据证明发达国家在20年期间存在EKC。在我们研究的时间段内，大多数发达国家的二氧化碳排放量相对稳定，甚至有所下降，而对于大多数发展中国家来说，二氧化碳排放量的峰值不可能在不久的将来达到。
As the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2) has been under intensive studied in the last two decades. This paper addresses the research that whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for CO2 emissions exists in G20 group-an international forum for governments and central banks from 19 countries and European Union. To analyze the studied relationship thoroughly, other four explanatory variables-two trade openness terms, the ratio of secondary industry value-added to GDP and population density-are employed to investigate whether they have any influences on the existence and shapes of EKC. In the empirical study, two multinational panel data sets covering the periods between 1960 and 2010 (50 years) and between 1990 and 2010 (20 years) are utilized, and the panel data fixed effects and generalized method of moments estimators are employed. The estimation results indicate that the EKC indeed exists in the G20 members as a whole. To investigate whether the existence of EKC depends on the level of economic growth, the G20 countries are further divided into two subgroups: developed and developing countries. Although the estimation results suggest that there exists EKC in developing countries during both 20- and 50-year period, there is no persuasive evidence to prove the existence of EKC in developed countries during the 20-year period. For the time periods we studied, most developed countries have seen relatively stable or even decreasing CO2 emissions, while for the majority of the developing countries, the peak of CO2 emissions could not be reached in the near future.