COMPARISON OF CME/SHOCK PROPAGATION MODELS WITH HELIOSPHERIC IMAGING AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS
COMPARISON OF CME/SHOCK PROPAGATION MODELS WITH HELIOSPHERIC IMAGING AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS
复制标题
DOI：
10.3847/0004-637x/830/1/48
复制
发表时间：
2016-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Xinhua Zhao;Y. Liu;B. Inhester;Xueshang Feng;T. Wiegelmann;Lei Lu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xinhua Zhao;Y. Liu;B. Inhester;Xueshang Feng;T. Wiegelmann;Lei Lu
预测快速日冕物质抛射（CMEs）及其相关冲击的到达时间在空间气象研究中是非常需要的。本文采用两种冲击传播模型，即数据引导冲击到达时间（DGSTOA）和数据引导冲击传播模型（DGSPM）来预测与快速日冕物质抛射相关的行星际冲击的运动学演化。DGSTOA是基于太阳风参照系中激波的相似理论，DGSPM是基于静止参照系中的非相似理论。输入是CME锋面在最大速度时刻的运动学，这是由应用于STEREO成像观测的几何三角剖分方法和调和均值近似得到的。输出提供相关冲击的后续传播。我们将这些模型应用于2012年1月19日、1月23日和3月7日的日冕物质抛射。结果表明，冲击模型能较好地预测冲击加速度后的冲击传播。这些模型预测的震波到达地球的时间和局部传播速度与WIND的现场测量结果一致。我们还采用了基于阻力的模型（DBM）作为比较，发现它在快速减速阶段之后预测的减速比冲击模型更陡峭。1 au时DBM的预测与接下来的ICME或鞘结构一致，而不是之前的冲击。这些结果证明了本文所用的冲击模型在预测与快速日冕物质抛射相关的行星际冲击的未来到达时间方面的适用性。
The prediction of the arrival time for fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is highly desirable in space weather studies. In this paper, we use two shock propagation models, i.e., Data Guided Shock Time Of Arrival (DGSTOA) and Data Guided Shock Propagation Model (DGSPM), to predict the kinematical evolution of interplanetary shocks associated with fast CMEs. DGSTOA is based on the similarity theory of shock waves in the solar wind reference frame, and DGSPM is based on the non-similarity theory in the stationary reference frame. The inputs are the kinematics of the CME front at the maximum speed moment obtained from the geometric triangulation method applied to STEREO imaging observations together with the Harmonic Mean approximation. The outputs provide the subsequent propagation of the associated shock. We apply these models to the CMEs on 2012 January 19, January 23, and March 7. We find that the shock models predict reasonably well the shock’s propagation after the impulsive acceleration. The shock’s arrival time and local propagation speed at Earth predicted by these models are consistent with in situ measurements of WIND. We also employ the Drag-Based Model (DBM) as a comparison, and find that it predicts a steeper deceleration than the shock models after the rapid deceleration phase. The predictions of DBM at 1 au agree with the following ICME or sheath structure, not the preceding shock. These results demonstrate the applicability of the shock models used here for future arrival time prediction of interplanetary shocks associated with fast CMEs.