Phase-adjusted estimation of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea under multi-source data and adjustment measures: a modelling study
Phase-adjusted estimation of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea under multi-source data and adjustment measures: a modelling study
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多源数据和调整措施下韩国 COVID-19 疫情的阶段调整估计：建模研究
DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2020205
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Wang, Xia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Xiaomei;Chen, Jing;Wang, Xia
根据韩国2020年2月16日至2020年3月9日报告的确诊病例、死亡病例和恢复病例的数据，利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法分别估计了不同控制措施阶段的控制再生数，并利用得到的后验均值和95%可信区间(CRI)进行了估计。在2月16日至2月24日的早期阶段，我们估计新冠肺炎的基本繁殖数R-0为4.79(95%CRI为4.38-5.2)。在2月25日至3月2日的第二阶段，由于自愿封锁措施，估计控制繁殖量迅速下降到R-c接近0.32(95%CRI 0.19-0.47)。在3月3日至3月9日的第三阶段，我们估计R-c为0.27(95%CRI为0.14-0.42)。我们预测，韩国新冠肺炎疫情的最终规模为9,661(95%CRI8660-11100)，整个疫情将在4月下旬结束。结果表明，降低接触率和提高测试速度会对峰值和峰值时间产生影响。
Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CrI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R-0 of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95% CrI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to R-c approximate to 0.32(95% CrI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate R-c to be 0.27 (95% CrI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95% CrI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.