Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis
Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2010.10.001
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Hunt, Lester C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dilaver, Zafer;Hunt, Lester C.
本研究探讨土耳其工业用电量、工业增加值与电价之间的关系，以预测土耳其未来的工业用电需求。为此，对1960年至2008年期间的年度数据应用结构时间序列技术估计了土耳其的工业电力需求函数。除了确定价格和工业增加值(产出)弹性的大小和重要性外，这项技术还揭示了土耳其工业部门的电力潜在能源需求趋势(UEDT)，据了解，这是首次尝试这样做。结果表明，产出和实际电价以及UEDT都在推动土耳其工业电力需求方面发挥着重要作用。因此，在对土耳其工业电力需求进行建模时，应将它们全部纳入其中，并且可以说，在未来有关土耳其电力行业的能源政策决策中，应考虑估计的UEDT。产量和价格弹性估计分别为0.15和-0.16，随着UEDT的增加(但在下降)，基于估计的方程和不同的预测假设，预测到2020年土耳其的工业用电量将在97-148太瓦时之间。(C)2010爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
This research investigates the relationship between Turkish industrial electricity consumption, industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish industrial electricity demand. To achieve this, an industrial electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added (output) elasticities, this technique also uncovers the electricity Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) for the Turkish industrial sector and is, as far as is known, the first attempt to do this. The results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a UEDT all have an important role to play in driving Turkish industrial electricity demand. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling Turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated UEDT should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the Turkish electricity industry. The output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.15 and -0.16 respectively, with an increasing (but at a decreasing rate) UEDT and based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 TWh by 2020. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.