The HIV/AIDS epidemic among young people in China between 2005 and 2012: results of a spatial temporal analysis.
The HIV/AIDS epidemic among young people in China between 2005 and 2012: results of a spatial temporal analysis.
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作者：
Zhang X;Tang W;Li Y;Mahapatra T;Feng Y;Li M;Chen F;Li P;Xing J;Qian S;Ge L;Bu K;Mahapatra S;Tang S;Wang L;Wang N
尽管最近中国青年人中艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行病激增，但具体针对青年人的艾滋病毒数据有限。2005 - 2012年中国艾滋病病例报告系统登记的15-24岁、具有完整空间信息的HIV/AIDS病例共56621例。空间自相关（一般和局部）和时空扫描分别使用ArcGIS 10.2和SaTScan 9.3软件。2005-2012年期间，报告的艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例数和艾滋病毒病例比例增加，而艾滋病病例比例下降。性接触在后来的几年中演变为主要的传播途径。空间分析显示，2005-2012年期间，中国各地青年人艾滋病病毒感染存在明显的地理差异。新热点的数量逐年增加。他们主要分布在东南沿海和西南边陲的广西、云南、四川等省区和北京市。后来，这些热点转向东北部。在三个不同的时间段发现了重要的HIV阳性病例聚集，这表明中国年轻人中的HIV传播率很高。在第一个集群（2009-2012年，规模最大），包括贵州和云南省，重庆市，广西和四川省，艾滋病毒的风险最高。第二个集群（2010-2012年）主要分布在上海、苏南、浙江和安徽南部地区，第三个集群（2010-2012年）主要分布在北京和天津地区。针对性的综合行为干预措施是遏制艾滋病在青少年中进一步蔓延的迫切需要。
Despite a recent upsurge of HIV/AIDS epidemic among young people in China, youth-specific HIV data were limited. Altogether 56621 HIV/AIDS cases, aged 15–24, registered in the Case Reporting System of China between 2005 and 2012 and having complete spatial information were included in the present analysis. Spatial autocorrelation (general and local) and space-time scanning were performed using ArcGIS10.2 and SaTScan 9.3 software, respectively. During 2005–2012, the number of reported HIV/AIDS cases and proportion of HIV cases increased while proportion of AIDS cases decreased. Sexual contact evolved as the pre-dominant route of transmission in later years. Spatial analysis showed marked geographic variations of HIV infection among young people throughout China during 2005–2012. The number of new hotspots increased over years. They were mainly localized in southeast coastal areas and southwest bordering provinces or autonomous regions of Guangxi, Yunnan and Sichuan and Beijing municipality. Later these hotspots shifted towards northeastern part. Significant clusters of HIV positive cases were identified in three different time-periods, which indicated high HIV transmission among young Chinese in the recent past. The risk of HIV was highest in the first cluster (2009–2012, largest in size) covering Guizhou and Yunnan province, Chongqing municipality, Guangxi and Sichuan province. The second cluster (2010–2012) was mostly located in Shanghai, South Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South Anhui area while the third cluster (2010–2012) was in Beijing and Tianjin. Target-specific comprehensive behavioral interventions were urgently needed to contain further spread of HIV epidemic among young people.