Modeling US Adult Obesity Trends: A System Dynamics Model for Estimating Energy Imbalance Gap
Modeling US Adult Obesity Trends: A System Dynamics Model for Estimating Energy Imbalance Gap
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2014.301882
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Glass, Thomas A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fallah-Fini, Saeideh;Rahmandad, Hazhir;Glass, Thomas A.
目标.我们提出了一个系统动力学模型，量化的能量不平衡的差距，负责美国成人肥胖症的流行性别和种族subpopulation. Methods。我们将成年人群分为性别-种族/民族亚群和体重指数（BMI）类。我们定义了类之间的转换率作为每个类内的个人的代谢动力学的函数。我们估计在过去的40年中，每个BMI等级的能量摄入量是该等级中个人平衡能量摄入量的乘积。通过校准，我们估计了每个性别-种族-BMI组的能量差距乘数，方法是将每个亚群的模拟BMI分布与国家数据进行最大似然估计。没有一个亚群显示出负的或零的能量差距，这表明肥胖流行病继续恶化，尽管速度较慢。在过去的十年中，这种流行病在非西班牙裔白人中有所减缓，在非西班牙裔黑人中开始减缓，但在墨西哥裔美国人中继续加速。各亚群体之间以及随着时间的推移，能量平衡差距有所不同，这表明干预措施应适合各亚群体的需要。
Objectives. We present a system dynamics model that quantifies the energy imbalance gap responsible for the US adult obesity epidemic among gender and racial subpopulations.Methods. We divided the adult population into gender-race/ethnicity subpopulations and body mass index (BMI) classes. We defined transition rates between classes as a function of metabolic dynamics of individuals within each class. We estimated energy intake in each BMI class within the past 4 decades as a multiplication of the equilibrium energy intake of individuals in that class. Through calibration, we estimated the energy gap multiplier for each gender-race-BMI group by matching simulated BMI distributions for each subpopulation against national data with maximum likelihood estimation.Results. No subpopulation showed a negative or zero energy gap, suggesting that the obesity epidemic continues to worsen, albeit at a slower rate. In the past decade the epidemic has slowed for non-Hispanic Whites, is starting to slow for non-Hispanic Blacks, but continues to accelerate among Mexican Americans.Conclusions. The differential energy balance gap across subpopulations and over time suggests that interventions should be tailored to subpopulations' needs.