How and why the Cold War became a long peace: Some statistical insights
How and why the Cold War became a long peace: Some statistical insights
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冷战如何以及为何成为长期和平：一些统计见解
DOI：
10.1177/0010836712461625
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Choong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
John A. Vasquez;Choong
对冷战长期和平如何以及为何发生的基于数据的分析。该分析检验了 Senese 和 Vasquez (2008) 最初提出的一个命题，即联盟极化在产生长期和平中发挥了重要作用，因为在 1816-1945 年和冷战后时期，双方拥有外部联盟与军事化国家间争端 (MID) 升级为战争呈正相关，而在冷战中则呈负相关。衍生出新的假设来检验这一说法。对两个假设的检验支持了这样的说法：联盟极化在长期和平中发挥了关键作用，即使在控制核武器的存在的情况下也是如此。
A data-based analysis of how and why the long peace of the Cold War occurred. The analysis tests a proposition originally suggested by Senese and Vasquez (2008) that alliance polarization played an important role in producing the long peace, because in the 1816–1945 and post-Cold War periods, both sides having outside alliances was positively associated with the escalation of a militarized interstate dispute (MID) to war and in the Cold War it was negatively related. New hypotheses are derived to test this claim. Tests of two hypotheses support the claim that alliance polarization played a key role in the long peace, even when controlling for the presence of nuclear weapons.