More than just aging societies: the demographic change has an impact on actual numbers of patients
More than just aging societies: the demographic change has an impact on actual numbers of patients
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DOI：
10.1007/s10389-007-0142-0
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发表时间：
2007-10-01
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Hoffmann, Wolfgang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fendrich, Konstanze;Hoffmann, Wolfgang
本文的目的是以德国为例，以梅克伦堡-西波美拉尼亚联邦州为例，估计2012年和2020年与2002年相比，因人口老龄化而导致的特定疾病（结肠癌、心肌梗死、糖尿病和痴呆）的患者数量。人口预测考虑了梅克伦堡-西波美拉尼亚的生育率、移民和特定年龄的死亡率。患者人数的计算基于基于人群的流行病学研究和/或登记的年龄特异性发病率或患病率。研究设计2012年和2020年的人口预测为1岁的特定性别年龄组。然后使用人口预测来估计特定年龄和性别的患者人数。结果到2012年，梅克伦堡-西波美拉尼亚州总人口将减少10.5%，但64岁以上人口的比例和绝对人数都将增加（2002年：29.4万人；2012年：34.9万人；2020年：38.2万人）。因此，到2012年，结肠癌患者的发病率将增加24.4%(2020年为+ 30.9%)，心肌梗死患者的发病率将增加27.5%（2020年为+ 40.9%）。结论人口结构的变化将导致大肠癌、心肌梗死、糖尿病和痴呆患者的绝对增加。与此同时，这些疾病患者的年龄谱将向老年转移。
Objective The purpose of this paper is to estimate the number of patients resulting from the aging of the population for selected diseases (colon cancer, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus and dementia) in 2012 and 2020 compared to 2002 based on the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania as a model for Germany.Data sources The population projection considers fertility, migration and age-specific mortality in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. The calculation of patient number is based on age-specific incidence or prevalence from population-based epidemiological studies and/or registers.Study design The population for 2012 and 2020 is projected for 1-year gender-specific age-cohorts. The demographic projection is then used for the estimation of age-and genderspecific numbers of patients.Results While the total population will decrease by 10.5% in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania by 2012, both the proportion and the absolute number of people older than 64 years will increase (2002: 294,000; 2012: 349,000; 2020: 382,000). As a consequence, the incident number of patients with colon cancer will increase by 24.4% by 2012 (+ 30.9% in 2020) and with myocardial infarction by 27.5% by 2012 (+ 40.9% in 2020).Conclusion The demographic change will lead to an absolute increase of patients with colon cancer, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus and dementia. At the same time the age-spectrum of patients with these diseases will shift towards older ages.