Modeling Train Delays in Urban Networks
Modeling Train Delays in Urban Networks
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DOI：
10.1287/trsc.32.4.346
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发表时间：
1998-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Higgins;E. Kozan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Higgins;E. Kozan
城市旅客列车的可靠性是衡量旅客满意度和市场份额的关键指标。在高峰时段，一列列车的延误可能会对其他列车的时刻表遵守产生严重影响。本文提出了一个基于解析的模型，以量化的预期正延误的个别旅客列车和轨道连接在城市轨道交通网络。该模型专门针对列车的直接延误、其他列车的连锁延误和预定连接的延误。使用迭代精化算法找到所得方程组的解。模型验证，这是使用现实生活中的郊区列车网络组成的157列车，显示模型估计平均在8%的大规模模拟获得的。还讨论了该模型的应用，以评估增加预定的松弛时间的后果，以及旨在减少延误的投资策略。
The reliability of urban passenger trains is a critical performance measure for passenger satisfaction and ultimately market share. A delay to one train in a peak period can have a severe effect on the schedule adherence of other trains. This paper presents an analytically based model to quantify the expected positive delay for individual passenger trains and track links in an urban rail network. The model specifically addresses direct delay to trains, knock-on delays to other trains, and delays at scheduled connections. A solution to the resultant system of equations is found using an iterative refinement algorithm. Model validation, which is carried out using a real-life suburban train network consisting of 157 trains, shows the model estimates to be on average within 8% of those obtained from a large scale simulation. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled slack time as well as investment strategies designed to reduce delay.