Verification of Infection Prevention Control Using a Spatial Random Walk Model
Verification of Infection Prevention Control Using a Spatial Random Walk Model
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使用空间随机游走模型验证感染预防控制
DOI：
10.11114/ijsss.v8i6.4955
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Li Yifeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ichinose Toshiaki;Tian Danhe;Li Yifeng
为了阻止2019年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）的大流行，日本政府提出了“减少80%的人与人接触机会”。该指南是基于宏观微分方程模型的结果，类似于SIR（易感-感染-传播）模型。为了直观地揭示人与人之间的传染机制，我们建立了一个新的模型来计算两个相互接触的人之间的传染。该模型采用空间随机游走模型来表示人在特定二维地理空间中的随机运动。该模型被应用于验证所提出的感染控制程序的效果，“减少80%”。数值模拟的结果支持由SIR模型导出的“减少80%”的感染控制程序。
To stop pandemic of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)," an 80 percent reduction of person to person contact opportunities" was proposed by the Japanese government. This guideline was based on the result of macroscopic differential equation model akin to the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model. For the purpose of indicating person to person's infection mechanism intuitively, we built a new model to calculate infections between two persons who are in contact each other. This model adopted a spatial random walk model to express random movement of people in a specific 2-D geographical space. This model was applied to verify the effect of the proposed infection control procedure," 80 percent reduction". The result of the numerical simulation supported a proposed infection control procedure of" an 80 percent reduction" derived by the SIR model.