State-dependence of Cenozoic thermal extremes
State-dependence of Cenozoic thermal extremes
复制标题
新生代极端高温的状态依赖性
DOI：
10.1038/s43247-023-00753-1
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Cael B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cael B
沉积物中的氧同位素反映了地球过去的温度，揭示了新生代的冷却，并被数百万年的极端热事件所打断。这些极端情况的严重程度及其对基线气候状况的依赖性尚不清楚。在这里，我们使用全球记录的深海有孔虫δ 18 O作为代理的新生代大气温度和调查如何密切的广义极值分布匹配δ 18 O块最大值。我们发现，这些极端的分布，以及捕获的广义极值分布。此外，极端的分布形状随着基线温度的变化而变化，因此在温暖的气候中更有可能出现大的热极端。因此，我们认为人为变暖有可能使基线气候状态恢复到更有可能出现大规模极端高温的状态。
Oxygen isotopes in sediments reflect Earth’s past temperature, revealing a cooling over the Cenozoic punctuated by multimillenial thermal extreme events. The magnitude of these extremes and their dependency on baseline climate state is not clearly understood. Here we use global records of deep sea foraminiferalδ18O as a proxy for atmospheric temperature over the Cenezoic and investigate how closely the generalised extreme value distribution matchesδ18O block maxima. We find that the distribution of these extremes is captured well by the generalized extreme value distribution. In addition, the distribution of extremes’ shape changes with baseline temperature such that large thermal extremes are more likely in warmer climates. We therefore suggest that anthropogenic warming has the potential to return the baseline climate state to one where large thermal extremes are more likely.