Drivers of global carbon emissions 1990–2014
Drivers of global carbon emissions 1990–2014
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133371
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发表时间：
2022-08
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Cuncun Duan;Wenjing Zhu;Saige Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cuncun Duan;Wenjing Zhu;Saige Wang
确定碳排放的驱动因素对于国家一级的碳减排至关重要。在这项研究中，结构分解分析（SDA）应用于1990年至2014年全球112个国家。将二氧化碳排放分解为六个驱动因素：人口、燃料结构、能源强度、生产结构、消费模式和消费量。在此基础上，量化了5个最终消费者和6个驱动因素对CO2排放总量的贡献。根据CO2排放强度和CO2排放增长率，将112个国家分为4组，各组之间所有驱动因素的影响差异显著。能源强度是对各组别总碳排放量产生负面影响的最显著因素。燃料结构和生产结构对第2组（如美国、希腊、意大利）和第3组（如德国、英国、瑞典）的碳排放具有潜在的积极影响，但会增加第1组（如中国）和第4组（如印度尼西亚、泰国、巴基斯坦）的碳排放。消费量导致所有群体的碳排放量急剧增加，这意味着家庭和政府购买力的增加是二氧化碳减排的最显著障碍。人口增长加速了第4组发展中国家的碳排放。因此，家庭消费量增长与能源强度降低之间的竞争对于第4组的碳排放减缓至关重要。
The identification of the drivers of carbon emissions is fundamental for carbon reductions at the national level. In this study, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is applied to 112 countries in the world from 1990 to 2014. Carbon dioxide emissions are decomposed into six driving factors: population, fuel mix, energy intensity, production structure, consumption patterns, and consumption volume. Then, the contributions of five final consumers and the six driving factors to the total carbon dioxide emissions are quantified. Based on the CO2emissions intensity and the CO2emissions growth rates, 112 countries are classified into 4 groups and the effects of all driving factors vary significantly among groups. Energy intensity is the most significant factor that negatively influences the total carbon emission in all groups. Fuel mix and production structure show potential positive effects on reducing carbon emissions in Group 2 (e.g. the USA, Greece, Italy) and Group 3 (e.g. Germany, the UK, Sweden), but they increase the carbon emissions in Group 1 (e.g. China) and Group 4 (e.g. Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan). Consumption volume results in a dramatic increase in the carbon emissions in all groups, which implies that the increasing purchasing power of households and government is the most notable obstacle to carbon dioxide mitigation. Population growth accelerates the carbon emissions in developing countries in Group 4. Thus, the race between household consumption volume growth and energy intensity reduction is vital for carbon emission mitigation in Group 4.