An elusive paleodemography? A comparison of two methods for estimating the adult age distribution of deaths at late Classic Copan, Honduras.
An elusive paleodemography? A comparison of two methods for estimating the adult age distribution of deaths at late Classic Copan, Honduras.
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难以捉摸的古人口学？
DOI：
10.1002/ajpa.20502
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
R. Storey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Storey
对年龄未知的同一骨骼样本进行不同成年年龄估计方法的比较可以推进古人口学推断，同时研究人员也可以解决各种争议。耳廓表面最初的老化方法（Lovejoy 等人，1985a）根据几个单独的特征进行年龄估计。研究人员发现这种原始方法很难应用。人们通常会忘记，在指定年龄之前，有一个序列化，即对所有可用的个体从最小到最大的顺序进行排序。因此，年龄估计反映了个体在样本中的位置。最近的一篇文章（Buckberry 和 Chamberlain，2002）提出了一种修订方法，将这些不同的特征划分为年龄阶段，然后可以与贝叶斯方法一起使用来估计样本的成人年龄分布。这两种方法均应用于来自洪都拉斯科潘的前哥伦布时期玛雅骨骼群体的成人耳廓表面，并得出了其中有大量老年人的年龄分布。然而，与通常的古人口统计分布相反，一项基于统一先验概率的贝叶斯估计得出人口中 57% 的死亡年龄超过 65 岁，而另一项基于高死亡率生命表的贝叶斯估计仍然有 12% 的人口年龄超过 75 岁。系列化方法得出的年龄分布更类似于工业化前历史情况下的年龄分布，并且成年人的寿命没有过长。古人口学仍然必须努力解决其难以捉摸的目标，即根据骨骼准确估计成人年龄，这是对过去人口进行人口统计研究的必要基础。
Comparison of different adult age estimation methods on the same skeletal sample with unknown ages could forward paleodemographic inference, while researchers sort out various controversies. The original aging method for the auricular surface (Lovejoy et al., 1985a) assigned an age estimation based on several separate characteristics. Researchers have found this original method hard to apply. It is usually forgotten that before assigning an age, there was a seriation, an ordering of all available individuals from youngest to oldest. Thus, age estimation reflected the place of an individual within its sample. A recent article (Buckberry and Chamberlain, 2002) proposed a revised method that scores theses various characteristics into age stages, which can then be used with a Bayesian method to estimate an adult age distribution for the sample. Both methods were applied to the adult auricular surfaces of a Pre-Columbian Maya skeletal population from Copan, Honduras and resulted in age distributions with significant numbers of older adults. However, contrary to the usual paleodemographic distribution, one Bayesian estimation based on uniform prior probabilities yielded a population with 57% of the ages at death over 65, while another based on a high mortality life table still had 12% of the individuals aged over 75 years. The seriation method yielded an age distribution more similar to that known from preindustrial historical situations, without excessive longevity of adults. Paleodemography must still wrestle with its elusive goal of accurate adult age estimation from skeletons, a necessary base for demographic study of past populations.
根据髂骨耳廓表面的形态估计成人死亡时骨骼年龄的新方法。
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
American Journal of Physical Anthropology 128・2
影响因子：
--
作者：
SEKI;M.;Y.Igarashi
通讯作者：
Y.Igarashi