Sea surface temperature east of Australia: A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?
Sea surface temperature east of Australia: A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?
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DOI：
10.1007/s11434-010-4157-5
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Botao Zhou;X. Cui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Botao Zhou;X. Cui
利用观测资料分析了澳大利亚东部海温（SST）与北太平洋西部热带气旋频率的关系。6 - 10月WNPTCF与澳大利亚东部春季海温呈负相关。当春季海温处于正相时，6 - 10月北太平洋西部地区对流层上层气旋环流异常和对流层下层反气旋环流异常占优势，同时大气沉降异常和垂直纬向风切变增大。这些条件对热带气旋的形成不利，因此WNPTCF减小。澳大利亚东部春季海温负相导致北太平洋西部出现更多热带气旋。澳大利亚东部春季海温可能通过远相关波列引起热带大气环流同步变化，进而影响北太平洋西部的大气环流变化。
The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation data. The WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of Australia. When the spring SST is in the positive phase, a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October, concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind shear. These conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis, and thus WNPTCF decreases. The negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. The spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train, and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.