I Can See Clearly Now: Episodic Future Thinking and Imaginability in Perceptions of Climate-Related Risk Events
I Can See Clearly Now: Episodic Future Thinking and Imaginability in Perceptions of Climate-Related Risk Events
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DOI：
10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00218
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发表时间：
2020-02-21
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Wolff, Katharina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bo, Simen;Wolff, Katharina
气候变化是统计上的、抽象的、难以直接理解的。想象一个你在未来经历气候变化后果的特定的个人事件（情景未来思维）可能会拉近气候变化的距离，从而增加与气候相关的风险事件的感知风险。我们进行了一项实验，以测试与以一般、抽象的方式（语义未来思维）思考未来相比，情景未来思维是否会增加与气候相关的风险事件和气候变化的感知风险。我们还测试了这种影响是否会被最初想象特定气候相关风险事件的难易程度所缓和。参与者被随机分配到情景未来思考条件或语义未来思考条件中，每个条件中有两个风险事件与洪水有关（难以想象），两个与极端温度有关（容易想象）。结果表明，情景性未来思维对感知风险无主要影响，与可想象性无交互作用。与预期和早期研究相反，这表明情景未来思维可能不会影响风险感知。
Climate change is statistical, abstract and difficult to comprehend directly. Imagining a specific, personal episode where you experience consequences of climate change in the future (episodic future thinking) may bring climate change closer, thus increasing the perceived risk of climate-related risk events. We conducted an experiment to test whether episodic future thinking increased the perceived risk of climate-related risk events and climate change in general, as compared to thinking about the future in a general, abstract manner (semantic future thinking). We also tested whether this effect is moderated by how easy it is to imagine the specific climate-related risk event initially. Participants were randomly assigned to an episodic future thinking-condition or a semantic future thinking-condition, and two of the risk events in each condition were related to flooding (difficult to imagine) and two were related to extreme temperature (easy to imagine). The results show no main effect of episodic future thinking on perceived risk, and no interaction effect with imaginability. Contrary to expectations and earlier research, this suggests that episodic future thinking may not influence risk perception.