Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30411-6
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发表时间：
2020-03-14
期刊：
影响因子：
168.9
通讯作者：
Colizza, Vittoria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gilbert, Marius;Pullano, Giulia;Colizza, Vittoria
背景 2019新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情已从中国蔓延至25个国家。病例输入后，12 个国家已出现本地循环传播。在非洲，埃及迄今确诊一例。 COVID-19输入的管理和控制在很大程度上依赖于一个国家的卫生能力。在这里，我们评估了非洲国家针对 COVID-19 输入风险的准备情况和脆弱性。方法我们使用从中国受感染省份机场出发前往非洲的航空旅行量数据来估计每个国家的输入风险。我们通过两个指标确定了该国发现和应对病例的能力：准备情况，使用世卫组织国际卫生条例监测和评估框架；和脆弱性，使用传染病脆弱性指数。根据对风险贡献最大的中国地区对国家进行聚类。研究结果输入风险最高的国家（即埃及、阿尔及利亚和南非）应对疫情的能力为中等到高。中度风险国家（即尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、苏丹、安哥拉、坦桑尼亚、加纳和肯尼亚）的能力参差不齐且脆弱性较高。我们确定了三个国家群，它们分别面临来自广东省、福建省和北京市的相同风险。 解读 非洲许多国家正在加紧准备，以发现和应对 COVID-19 输入。对于可能没有做好检测输入病例和限制进一步传播准备的中度风险国家，应紧急优先考虑资源、强化监测和能力建设。资助欧盟 2020 年研究和创新框架计划，国家研究机构。版权所有 (C) 2020 爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Background The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19.Methods We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk.Findings Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively.Interpretation Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission. Funding EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherche. Copyright (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.