Turning Out to Vote: The Costs of Finding and Getting to the Polling Place
Turning Out to Vote: The Costs of Finding and Getting to the Polling Place
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DOI：
10.1017/s0003055410000596
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
McNulty, John E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brady, Henry E.;McNulty, John E.
改变投票站的位置是否会增加一些人的投票成本并减少另一些人的投票成本，从而影响选举结果？2003年加州州长罢免选举期间，洛杉矶县投票区的合并为研究投票地点的变化如何影响选民投票率提供了一个自然的实验。总体投票率大幅下降1.85个百分点：投票站投票率下降3.03个百分点，但缺席投票率上升1.18个百分点，部分抵消了这一下降。运输和搜索成本都导致了这些变化。虽然没有证据表明，洛杉矶选民登记处为一个政党登记的选民更换的投票地点比为另一个政党登记的选民更换的投票地点多，但投票地点的更换仍然有一个小的党派影响，因为登记为民主党人的选民比登记为共和党人的选民对费用的变化更敏感。这些影响很小，足以减轻人们对这种情况下重大选举后果的担忧（例如，党派效应可能只在大约二百分之一的有争议的众议院选举中起决定性作用），但大到足以使某人有可能通过更广泛地操纵投票站的位置来影响结果。
Could changing the locations of polling places affect the outcome of an election by increasing the costs of voting for some and decreasing them for others? The consolidation of voting precincts in Los Angeles County during California's 2003 gubernatorial recall election provides a natural experiment for studying how changing polling places influences voter turnout. Overall turnout decreased by a substantial 1.85 percentage points: A drop in polling place turnout of 3.03 percentage points was partially offset by an increase in absentee voting of 1.18 percentage points. Both transportation and search costs caused these changes. Although there is no evidence that the Los Angeles Registrar of Voters changed more polling locations for those registered with one party than for those registered with another, the changing of polling places still had a small partisan effect because those registered as Democrats were more sensitive to changes in costs than those registered as Republicans. The effects were small enough to allay worries about significant electoral consequences in this instance (e.g., the partisan effect might be decisive in only about one in two hundred contested House elections), but large enough to make it possible for someone to affect outcomes by more extensive manipulation of polling place locations.