Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability.
Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability.
复制标题
从古气候记录中得出动力学模型：应用于冰川千年尺度的气候变化。
DOI：
10.1103/physreve.80.066104
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gerrit Lohmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Kwasniok;Gerrit Lohmann
提出了一种从冰芯数据系统地推导简单非线性动力学模型的方法。它提供了一种将模型和理论与古气候数据相结合的工具。该方法基于无迹卡尔曼滤波器，它是传统卡尔曼滤波器的非线性扩展。在这里，我们采用潜在的随机驱动运动的抽象概念模型，允许两种截然不同的状态。该模型的参数——势的形状和噪声水平——是根据北格陵兰冰芯记录估计的。对于距今 70 到 20 ky 的冰川期，导出的势是不对称的且几乎是简并的。有一个深井对应于冷场态，一个很浅的井对应于热场间状态。
A method for systematically deriving simple nonlinear dynamical models from ice-core data is proposed. It offers a tool to integrate models and theories with paleoclimatic data. The method is based on the unscented Kalman filter, a nonlinear extension of the conventional Kalman filter. Here, we adopt the abstract conceptual model of stochastically driven motion in a potential that allows for two distinctly different states. The parameters of the model-the shape of the potential and the noise level-are estimated from a North Greenland ice-core record. For the glacial period from 70 to 20 ky before present, a potential is derived that is asymmetric and almost degenerate. There is a deep well corresponding to a cold stadial state and a very shallow well corresponding to a warm interstadial state.