Future of Mobility White Paper

Future of Mobility White Paper
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移动出行的未来白皮书

DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Stocker
A. Stocker
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
S. Shaheen;Hannah Totte;A. Stocker

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可以说，交通运输正在经历自汽车问世以来最具变革性的革命。对气候变化和公平的关切正与巨大的技术进步融合在一起。尽管这些变化--包括共享出行和自动化--正在迅速改变出行格局，但对交通未来的预测是复杂的、微妙的，而且存在广泛的争议。法律要求加州更新加州交通计划（CTP），每五年更新一次模型和政策考虑，以反映行业变化。本文件旨在作为建模者和决策者的参考。我们汇总了当前关于关键趋势和新兴技术/服务的信息和研究，对加州交通生态系统的记录影响以及未来增长预测（如适用）。在2017年，我们通过参考国家机构出版物，同行评议的期刊文章以及咨询公司和智库的预测报告，审查了20个主题的扩展列表。我们跟随交通通讯和媒体来源追踪行业发展，并采访了六位专家，探讨他们对交通未来的看法。我们咨询了一个由来自地方和州交通机构的50多名代表组成的咨询委员会，他们在整个项目的发展过程中提供了意见。我们还从一个美国专家小组那里获得了对报告草案的反馈。
Transportation is arguably experiencing its most transformative revolution since the introduction of the automobile. Concerns over climate change and equity are converging with dramatic technological advances. Although these changes – including shared mobility and automation – are rapidly altering the mobility landscape, predictions about the future of transportation are complex, nuanced, and widely debated. California is required by law to renew the California Transportation Plan (CTP), updating its models and policy considerations to reflect industry changes every five years. This document is envisioned as a reference for modelers and decision makers. We aggregate current information and research on the state of key trends and emerging technologies/services, documented impacts on California’s transportation ecosystem, and future growth projections (as appropriate). During 2017, we reviewed an expanded list of 20 topics by referencing state agency publications, peer-reviewed journal articles, and forecast reports from consulting firms and think tanks. We followed transportation newsletters and media sources to track industry developments, and interviewed six experts to explore their opinions on the future of transportation. We consulted an advisory committee of over 50 representatives from local and state transportation agencies, who provided input throughout the project’s evolution. We also obtained feedback on our draft report from a panel of U.S. experts.