Application of Extension Method in Regional Vulnerability Evaluation and Zoning
Application of Extension Method in Regional Vulnerability Evaluation and Zoning
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发表时间：
2003
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通讯作者：
L. Hui
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作者：
L. Hui
区域脆弱性评价与区划是一个非常复杂的过程，涉及到很多因素。评价和分区方法多种多样。区域经济发展与灾害频发在某些方面是不相容的，而可拓方法是解决不相容问题的有效工具。为此，本文探讨了可拓学方法在区域脆弱性评价与区划中的应用。首先，介绍了可拓方法的基本原理和可拓方法在区域脆弱性评价与区划中的应用步骤，包括指标的选取、指标定义域和经典域的确定、指标权重的分配、一级评价、单指标关联度和综合关联度的计算、综合关联度的划分等。采用因子分析法计算指标的权重：在SPSS中对指标进行因子分析，得到各指标的共性，然后对共性进行公式处理：ω= ω i 2 ω i 2 ω i其中ω为各指标的权重，ω i为各指标的共性。由于共性是指指标对各因素的代表程度，因此用该方法确定指标权重是合理的。结果表明，经济脆弱度对综合脆弱度的贡献最大，社会脆弱度次之，生态脆弱度最小。其次，以四川省为例，对该方法的应用效果进行了检验，结果表明，综合脆弱度最高和较高的地区占85.88%，说明四川省整体脆弱度较高;此外，本发明还涉及一种用于该方法，综合关联度和单指标关联度分析表明，综合脆弱性程度和关键制约因素之间差异较大分区结果表明，成都、攀枝花、德阳为最轻微，自贡为轻微，绵阳、内江、广安、眉山为中度，泸州、遂宁、乐山、南充、宜宾、达州、巴中、资阳为严重，广元、雅安、阿坝、甘孜州和凉山州属于最严重的程度。最后，指出可拓方法在区域脆弱性评价中的应用是可行的，但该方法的一个缺点是Kj（vi）是vi与（a0 i，B 0 i）之间的距离，这使得同等级区域的比较更加困难。但随着关联度计算方法的发展，可拓方法将为自然边界的识别和自然要素分区提供广阔的研究前景。
Regional vulnerability evaluation and zoning is a very complex process, which involves a lot of factors. And the methods of evaluation and zoning are various. Regional economic development and frequent disasters are incompatible in some ways, and extension method is an effective tool to solve incompatible problems. So this essay probes application of extension method to regional vulnerability evaluation and zoning. First, the theory of extension method and steps of application of extension method to regional vulnerability evaluation and zoning are introduced,which includes selection of indexes, defining definition field and classical field of indexes, assignments of weight among the indexes, the first evaluation, calculation of single index correlative degree and synthetical correlative degree, and zoning according to synthetical correlative degree. Factor analysis is used to calculate the weight of indexes: factor analysis of the indexes is carried in SPSS and get the commonality of each index, then deal with the commonality with the formula:ω= i 2 2where ω is the weight of each index, i is the commonality of each index. Since the commonality means how much the index can stand for the factors, it is reasonable to assign the weight among indexes using this method. It is proved that economic vulnerability degree contributes the most to synthetical vulnerability degree, social vulnerability degree is the next, and ecological vulnerability degree means the least. Second, Sichuan Province is taken as an example to test its effect of the application,results show that the area with highest and higher synthetical vulnerability degree takes up 85.88%, from which we can get the conclusion that vulnerability degree of Sichuan Province is high as a whole; in addition, synthetical correlative degree and single index correlative degree show that synthetical vulnerability degree and key restrictive factors differentiate a lot among regions, which means different measures should be taken according to different key restrictive factors.Zoning results show that Chengdu, Panzhihua and Deyang belong to the most slight degree, Zigong belongs to slight degree, Mianyang, Neijiang, Guang'an and Meishan belong to middle degree, Luzhou, Suining, Leshan, Nanchong, Yibing, Dazhou, Bazhong and Ziyang belong to severe degree, Guangyuan, Ya'an, Aba, Ganzi and Liangshan belong to the most severe degree. Last, a conclusion is given that application of extension method to regional vulnerability evaluation is practical, but one disadvantage of this method should be pointed out that K j(v i) is the distance between v i and ( a 0i ,b 0i ) , which makes it more difficult to compare the regions belong to the same degree. But with the development of calculating method of correlative degree, extension method will supply vast vistas on researches of natural border identification and natural elements zoning.