Integrating different types of information into hydrological model parameter estimation: Application to ungauged catchments and land use scenario analysis
Integrating different types of information into hydrological model parameter estimation: Application to ungauged catchments and land use scenario analysis
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DOI：
10.1029/2011wr011207
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发表时间：
2012-06
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
N. Bulygina;C. Ballard;N. McIntyre;G. O'Donnell;H. Wheater
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Bulygina;C. Ballard;N. McIntyre;G. O'Donnell;H. Wheater
在水文建模中，两个应用领域提出了特别的挑战，首先是无资料集水区的建模，其次是集水区非平稳性的建模;例如，由于土地利用变化的影响。未测量的集水问题需要集水的先验知识与行为证据相结合，例如从区域化练习和/或现场流量测量。模拟土地使用变化的影响需要将有关汇水区的先验知识与关于这种变化对模型参数的影响的信息结合起来，通常是在没有直接观测来调节参数的情况下。在这两种情况下，理想情况下，应该考虑所有可用的行为信息来源，并以最大化模型识别和不确定性估计信息价值的方式进行整合。使用正式的贝叶斯程序，我们将联合收割机三种不同的知识来源结合到一个流域尺度概念模型中：（1）小尺度物理特性;（2）流量的区域化特征;（3）可用的流量测量。将该方法应用于英国Hodder流域的分布式模型，基于物理的信息源对提高模型性能贡献最大，其次是高峰流量时间，最后是区域化签名。洪水频率曲线的土地利用变化的情况下进行了评估，并确定了那些变化是显着的相对模型的不确定性。
In hydrological modeling, two areas of application present particular challenges, first the modeling of ungauged catchments, and second the modeling of catchment nonstationarity; for example due to effects of land use change. The ungauged catchment problem requires that prior knowledge of the catchment is combined with evidence of behavior; for example from a regionalization exercise and/or spot flow measurements. Simulation of the effects of land use change requires that prior knowledge of the catchment is combined with information on the effects of that change on model parameters, generally in the absence of direct observations with which to condition the parameters. In both cases, ideally, all available sources of information about the behavior should be considered, and integrated in a way that maximizes the value of the information for model identification and uncertainty estimation. Using a formal Bayesian procedure, we combine three different sources of knowledge into a catchment scale conceptual model: (1) small‐scale physical properties; (2) regionalized signatures of flow; and (3) available flow measurements. Applying the methodology to a distributed model for the Hodder catchment, UK, the physics‐based information source contributed most to improving model performance, followed by peak flow times, and lastly the regionalized signatures. The flood frequency curve was evaluated under scenarios of land use change, and those changes that were significant relative to model uncertainty were identified.