Quantifying recent acceleration in sea level unrelated to internal climate variability
Quantifying recent acceleration in sea level unrelated to internal climate variability
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/grl.50731
复制
发表时间：
2013-07-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Chambers, D. P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Calafat, F. M.;Chambers, D. P.
海平面观测表明，过去 20 年海平面上升速度加快。然而，存在相当大的十年尺度变异性，特别是在区域尺度上，使得很难评估观察到的变化是自然原因还是人为原因。在这里，我们使用以大气压力、风和气候指数为自变量的回归模型来量化 1920 年至 2011 年期间来自世界各地的 9 个验潮仪的内部气候变化对海平面的影响。除去这一贡献后，我们发现 1952 年至 2011 年间存在统计上显着的加速（0.022 +/- 0.015 毫米/年(2)），这在整个时期是独一无二的。此外，我们发现加速度随着时间的推移而增加。这种加速似乎是温室气体浓度增加以及火山强迫和对流层气溶胶负荷变化的结果。
Sea level observations suggest that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated during the last 20years. However, the presence of considerable decadal-scale variability, especially on a regional scale, makes it difficult to assess whether the observed changes are due to natural or anthropogenic causes. Here we use a regression model with atmospheric pressure, wind, and climate indices as independent variables to quantify the contribution of internal climate variability to the sea level at nine tide gauges from around the world for the period 1920-2011. Removing this contribution reveals a statistically significant acceleration (0.022 +/- 0.015mm/yr(2)) between 1952 and 2011, which is unique over the whole period. Furthermore, we have found that the acceleration is increasing over time. This acceleration appears to be the result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, along with changes in volcanic forcing and tropospheric aerosol loading.