PRESENTATION AND CONTENT - THE USE OF BASE RATES AS A CONTINUOUS VARIABLE
PRESENTATION AND CONTENT - THE USE OF BASE RATES AS A CONTINUOUS VARIABLE
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DOI：
10.1037/0096-1523.14.3.513
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发表时间：
1988-08-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
BLANK, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
GIGERENZER, G;HELL, W;BLANK, H
在概率修正实验中，受试者是否由于使用代表性启发式而通常忽略基本率，或者基本率的使用取决于我们所说的内部问题表征？在实验1中，我们使用了Kahneman和Tversky（1973）的工程师-律师问题，其中描述的随机抽样对于作为概率修正中的一个问题的内部表示至关重要。如果随机抽样是由受试者自己进行和观察的，那么他们的判断更符合贝叶斯理论而不是代表性假设。如果随机抽样只是口头上的断言，判断遵循代表性启发式。在实验2中，我们使用了足球问题，它具有相同的形式结构，但受试者的日常经验已经将其表示为概率修正问题。随着内容的变化，受试者的判断与贝叶斯表现难以区分。我们的结论是，通过操纵表示和内容，可以导致忽略或使用基本利率，以及两者之间的点。这一结果表明，代表性既不是一种万能的心理策略，也不是一种倾向，而是关键信息的内容和呈现的功能。（PsycINFO数据库记录(c) 2016 APA，版权所有）
Do subjects, in probability revision experiments, generally neglect base rates due to the use of a representativeness heuristic, or does the use of base rates depend on what we call the internal problem representation? In Experiment 1, we used Kahneman and Tversky's (1973) engineer-lawyer problem, where random sampling of descriptions is crucial to the internal representation of the problem as one in probablity revision. If random sampling was performed and observed by the subjects themselves, then their judgments conformed more to Bayesian theory than to the representativeness hypothesis. If random sampling was only verbally asserted, judgments followed the representativeness heuristic. In Experiment 2 we used the soccer problem, which has the same formal structure but which the subjects' every day experience already represents as a probability revision problem. With this change in content, subjects' judgments were indistinguishable from Bayesian performance. We conclude that by manipulating presentation and content, one can elicit either base rate neglect or base rate use, as well as points in between. This result suggests that representativeness is neither an all-purpose mental strategy nor even a tendency, but rather a function of the content and the presentation of crucial information.(PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved)