Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems
Sea Level Forecasts Aggregated from Established Operational Systems
复制标题
根据已建立的操作系统汇总的海平面预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Brassington
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andy J. Taylor;G. Brassington
一个系统，用于提供例行的七天的海平面预报观测验潮站的位置进行说明和评估。预测时间序列是从澳大利亚气象局完善的业务系统中汇总的;尽管经过一些调整，这些系统只是准补充。目标应用是在非极端条件下的常规沿海决策过程。这一配置旨在相对稳健地应对版本升级、数据缺口和元数据模糊等业务现实。预报技巧是根据每小时验潮站观测结果进行评价的。偏置校正项的特性被证明主要是静态的时间，随时间变化的信号显示区域的一致性。这种利用现有复杂系统的简单方法可以在澳大利亚的一系列地点提供宝贵的技能水平。可以有意义地探讨观测地点之间的插值和利用滞后集合不确定性估计的前景。技能特征确定了一个基准，可以根据这个基准来衡量新的海平面预报系统。更一般地说，一个聚合的方法可能被证明是最佳的例行海平面预报服务的物理不均匀的过程中所涉及的能力，并将不断改进和扩展的源系统。
A system for providing routine seven-day forecasts of sea level observable at tide gauge locations is described and evaluated. Forecast time series are aggregated from well-established operational systems of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; although following some adjustments these systems are only quasi-complimentary. Target applications are routine coastal decision processes under non-extreme conditions. The configuration aims to be relatively robust to operational realities such as version upgrades, data gaps and metadata ambiguities. Forecast skill is evaluated against hourly tide gauge observations. Characteristics of the bias correction term are demonstrated to be primarily static in time, with time varying signals showing regional coherence. This simple approach to exploiting existing complex systems can offer valuable levels of skill at a range of Australian locations. The prospect of interpolation between observation sites and exploitation of lagged-ensemble uncertainty estimates could be meaningfully pursued. Skill characteristics define a benchmark against which new operational sea level forecasting systems can be measured. More generally, an aggregation approach may prove to be optimal for routine sea level forecast services given the physically inhomogeneous processes involved and ability to incorporate ongoing improvements and extensions of source systems.