Co-benefits of climate mitigation on air quality and human health in Asian countries
Co-benefits of climate mitigation on air quality and human health in Asian countries
复制标题
减缓气候变化对亚洲国家空气质量和人类健康的协同效益
DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2018.07.008
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Kurata Gakuji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xie Yang;Dai Hancheng;Xu Xinghan;Fujimori Shinichiro;Hasegawa Tomoko;Yi Kan;Masui Toshihiko;Kurata Gakuji
缓解气候变化涉及减少化石燃料消耗和温室气体排放，这是昂贵的，特别是在严格的缓解目标下。减少空气污染物和改善人类健康的共同好处往往被忽视，但可以在决策中发挥重要作用。在这项研究中，我们从物质和金钱两个方面量化了气候变化缓解对环境空气质量和人类健康的共同好处，并特别关注亚洲，如果不采取缓解措施，那里的空气质量在未来几十年可能会恶化。我们使用了一个综合评估框架，其中包括经济、空气化学运输和健康评估模型。在2 °C的目标下，通过减缓气候变化来减少空气污染，可以在2050年之前将亚洲的过早死亡人数减少79万人(95%可信区间：750万-180万)。这一共同利益相当于大约2.8万亿美元的终身储蓄(占国内生产总值的6%)，显然高于气候缓解成本(8400亿美元，占国内生产总值的2%)。在国家层面，印度的潜在净收益最高，为1.4万亿美元，其次是中国(3300亿美元)和日本(680亿美元)。此外，在大多数亚洲国家，人均GDP增长和终身价值储蓄将随着人均GDP的增加而增加。在几个社会经济学和暴露-反应函数假设下，我们有力地证实了这一定性结论。
Climate change mitigation involves reducing fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, which is expensive, particularly under stringent mitigation targets. The co-benefits of reducing air pollutants and improving human health are often ignored, but can play significant roles in decision-making. In this study, we quantified the co-benefits of climate change mitigation on ambient air quality and human health in both physical and monetary terms with a particular focus on Asia, where air quality will likely be degraded in the next few decades if mitigation measures are not undertaken. We used an integrated assessment framework that incorporated economic, air chemistry transport, and health assessment models. Air pollution reduction through climate change mitigation under the 2 °C goal could reduce premature deaths in Asia by 0.79 million (95% confidence interval: 0.75–1.8 million) by 2050. This co-benefit is equivalent to a life value savings of approximately 2.8 trillion United States dollars (USD) (6% of the gross domestic product [GDP]), which is decidedly more than the climate mitigation cost (840 billion USD, 2% of GDP). At the national level, India has the highest potential net benefit of 1.4 trillion USD, followed by China (330 billion USD) and Japan (68 billion USD). Furthermore, in most Asian countries, per capita GDP gain and life value savings would increase with per capita GDP increasing. We robustly confirmed this qualitative conclusion under several socioeconomic and exposure-response function assumptions.