Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii Estimates, Forecasts, and Error Forecasts for the Western North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii Estimates, Forecasts, and Error Forecasts for the Western North Pacific
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西北太平洋热带气旋大风风半径估计、预报和误差预报
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Efren A. Serra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Sampson;J. Goerss;J. Knaff;B. Strahl;E. Fukada;Efren A. Serra
2016年，联合台风预警中心将大风强度和其他风半径的预报延长至5天。这种努力和对“最佳路径”（质量控制和记录的热带气旋路径和季后发布的强度估计）进行大风半径的季后赛分析的推动，促使人们需要新的指导来解决这两方面的挑战。与此同时，用于估计和预测风半径的操作工具不断发展，现在形成了一套高质量的大风半径分析和预测工具。这项工作提供了大风半径（大风单个风半径估计的平均值/共识）的实时估计的更新，其中包括客观散射计导出的估计。该工作还涉及大风半径预测的业务，因为它提供了大风半径预测共识的更新，现在包括大风半径预测误差估计，以配合大风半径预测。大风半径预测误差估计是利用实时可用的预测因子（如共识范围、初始大小和预测强度）来计算的，以确保操作的可靠性和及时性。到2018年1月，这些更新都已在联合台风预警中心的操作中实施，随着新的和改进的指南可用，预计未来几年将有更多的更新。
In 2016, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center extended forecasts of gale-force and other wind radii to 5 days. That effort and a thrust to perform postseason analysis of gale-force wind radii for the “best tracks” (the quality controlled and documented tropical cyclone track and intensity estimates released after the season) have prompted requirements for new guidance to address the challenges of both. At the same time, operational tools to estimate and predict wind radii continue to evolve, now forming a quality suite of gale-force wind radii analysis and forecasting tools. This work provides an update to real-time estimates of gale-force wind radii (a mean/consensus of gale-force individual wind radii estimates) that includes objective scatterometer-derived estimates. The work also addresses operational gale-force wind radii forecasting in that it provides an update to a gale-force wind radii forecast consensus, which now includes gale-force wind radii forecast error estimates to accompany the gale-force wind radii forecasts. The gale-force wind radii forecast error estimates are computed using predictors readily available in real time (e.g., consensus spread, initial size, and forecast intensity) so that operational reliability and timeliness can be ensured. These updates were all implemented in operations at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center by January 2018, and more updates should be expected in the coming years as new and improved guidance becomes available.