Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900-2017
Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900-2017
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-018-0165-2
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Pielke, Roger, Jr.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weinkle, Jessica;Landsea, Chris;Pielke, Roger, Jr.
当飓风遇到一个易受影响的脆弱社会时，就会造成直接经济损失。如果历史极端事件发生在当代社会条件下，则正常化估计该事件的直接经济损失。在联合国可持续发展目标的全球指标框架下，减少直接经济损失占经济活动总量的比例被确定为减轻灾害影响进展的一个关键指标。因此，从发展的角度理解损失趋势有助于评估可持续发展。这项分析为1900年至2017年美国大陆飓风损失归一化数据集提供了重大更新。在此期间，197场飓风导致206次登陆，造成约2万亿美元的正常（2018年）损失，或每年不到170亿美元。与观测到的1900年以来沿着美国大陆登陆的飓风频率和强度趋势一致，更新的标准化损失估计也没有显示出任何趋势。对世纪至2017年不同时期的飓风趋势和标准化损失进行更详细的比较，显示出高度的一致性。
Direct economic losses result when a hurricane encounters an exposed, vulnerable society. A normalization estimates direct economic losses from a historical extreme event if that same event was to occur under contemporary societal conditions. Under the global indicator framework of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the reduction of direct economic losses as a proportion of total economic activity is identified as a key indicator of progress in the mitigation of disaster impacts. Understanding loss trends in the context of development can therefore aid in assessing sustainable development. This analysis provides a major update to the leading dataset on normalized US hurricane losses in the continental United States from 1900 to 2017. Over this period, 197 hurricanes resulted in 206 landfalls with about US$2 trillion in normalized (2018) damage, or just under US$17 billion annually. Consistent with observed trends in the frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the continental United States since 1900, the updated normalized loss estimates also show no trend. A more detailed comparison of trends in hurricanes and normalized losses over various periods in the twentieth century to 2017 demonstrates a very high degree of consistency.