The Little Ice Age and 20th-century deep Pacific cooling
The Little Ice Age and 20th-century deep Pacific cooling
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aar8413
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发表时间：
2019-01-04
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Huybers, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gebbie, G.;Huybers, P.
代理记录显示，在现代人为变暖开始之前，从中世纪温暖期到小冰河期发生了全球一致变冷。海洋的长期记忆表明，这些历史性的表面异常现象与正在进行的深海温度调整有关。将海洋模型与现代和古海洋学数据相结合，得出这样的预测：太平洋深处仍在适应进入小冰河时代的冷却，而表层海洋和大西洋深处的温度趋势反映了现代变暖。这一预测得到了 1870 年代英国皇家海军挑战者号探险队与现代水文学之间的温度变化的证实。自公元 1750 年以来，深海隐含的热量损失抵消了上层海洋全球热量增加的四分之一。
Proxy records show that before the onset of modern anthropogenic warming, globally coherent cooling occurred from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. The long memory of the ocean suggests that these historical surface anomalies are associated with ongoing deep-ocean temperature adjustments. Combining an ocean model with modern and paleoceanographic data leads to a prediction that the deep Pacific is still adjusting to the cooling going into the Little Ice Age, whereas temperature trends in the surface ocean and deep Atlantic reflect modern warming. This prediction is corroborated by temperature changes identified between the HMS Challenger expedition of the 1870s and modern hydrography. The implied heat loss in the deep ocean since 1750 CE offsets one-fourth of the global heat gain in the upper ocean.