Graduated without passing? The employment dimension and LDCs' prospects under the Istanbul Programme of Action

Graduated without passing? The employment dimension and LDCs' prospects under the Istanbul Programme of Action
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没通过就毕业了？

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发表时间：
2013
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通讯作者：
A. Gauci
A. Gauci
中科院分区：
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作者：
Giovanni Valensisi;A. Gauci

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最不发达国家（LDC）近期的经济表现再次引发乐观情绪，尽管GDP增长的显着趋势与创造就业和社会发展成果并不相称。在此背景下，虽然《伊斯坦布尔最不发达国家行动纲领》（IPoA）含蓄地承认了结构转型、创造就业和包容性增长之间的联系，但实际上，其制定的措辞往往让政策制定者的注意力被GDP增长所吸引 目标（每年 7%）和毕业前景，即 IPoA 中仅有的两个量化目标。 本文结合二级劳动力数据以及基于历史就业增长弹性的不同增长情景，测试了到 2020 年实现 IPoA 7% 增长率的目标是否足以让最不发达国家 (LDC) 创造充足的就业机会。结果表明，即使实现了《国际行动计划》的目标，一些最不发达国家也可能无法有效地雇用所有新进入者 劳动力市场，除非其增长模式转向更加多元化的就业密集型部门。换句话说，增长模式与其数量水平同样重要。这一结论强调，有必要将就业维度置于最不发达国家发展前景的中心位置，超越 GDP 增长目标和毕业情景。
Least Developed Countries’ (LDCs’) recent economic performance has sparked renewed optimism, although the remarkable trend in GDP growth has not been commensurate with employment creation and social development outcomes. Against this background, whilst the Istanbul Programme of Action for the LDCs (IPoA) implicitly acknowledges the link between structural transformation, employment creation, and inclusive growth, in practical terms its formulation is such that policy-makers’ attention is often captured by GDP growth targets (7 percent per year) and graduation prospects, i.e. the only two quantified targets in the IPoA. Combining secondary labour force data, with different growth scenarios based on historical employment elasticities of growth, the paper tests whether achieving the IPoA target of 7 percent growth rate until 2020 would be adequate for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to generate sufficient employment. Results show that, even if the IPoA target were achieved, a number of LDCs may not be in a position to productively employ all the new entrants in the labour market, unless their pattern of growth shifts towards more diversified employment-intensive sectors. In other words, the pattern of growth is as critical as its quantitative level. This conclusion highlights the need to put the employment dimension at the centre of LDC development prospects, over and beyond GDP growth targets and graduation scenarios.