An emergency response‐type rainfall‐runoff‐inundation simulation for 2011 Thailand floods
An emergency response‐type rainfall‐runoff‐inundation simulation for 2011 Thailand floods
复制标题
2011年泰国洪水应急响应型降雨径流洪水模拟
DOI：
10.1111/jfr3.12147
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Shigenobu Tanaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Takahiro Sayama;Yuya Tatebe;Shigenobu Tanaka
2011年泰国发生了一场毁灭性的洪水灾害。在发生如此大规模的洪水时，近乎实时地预测洪水动态对于安全疏散非常重要。为了预测大范围的洪水（周围山脉的降雨径流和洪泛区的降雨都会导致这一事件），本文将降雨径流洪水 (RRI) 模型应用于整个湄南河流域（160 000 平方公里）。使用全球可用的数据集（包括灾难期间的卫星地形（源自 SRTM 的 HydroSHEDS）和降雨量（TRMM 3B42RT））对应急响应进行近实时模拟。还利用更多当地信息进行了洪水后模拟。研究发现，RRI 模型能够以可接受的精度表示峰值洪水范围，并正确预测流域下部持续 1 个月的洪水。另一方面，预测高估了河流流量40%，淹没水位2m，主要是由于忽略了蒸散效应。洪水后模拟将河流流量的精度提高了 10%，将洪水峰值水位的精度提高了 1 m，但并没有使洪水范围与遥感数据更加一致。建议进一步研究以提高洪水空间范围建模的准确性。此外，不同输入的敏感性分析表明，应急响应型洪水模拟应优先考虑哪些信息。
A devastating flood disaster occurred in Thailand in 2011. In case of such large‐scale flooding, it is important to predict the dynamics of inundation on a near real‐time basis for safe evacuation. To predict widespread inundation, where both rainfall‐runoff from surrounding mountains and rainfall on floodplains contribute to the event, this paper applied a rainfall‐runoff‐inundation (RRI) model to the entire Chao Phraya River basin (160 000 km2). Near real‐time simulation was conducted for emergency responses with globally available dataset including satellite‐based topography (HydroSHEDS derived from SRTM) and rainfall (TRMM 3B42RT) during the disaster. Post‐flood simulation was also carried out with more local information. The RRI model was found capable of representing the peak inundation extent with an acceptable accuracy and correctly predicting a 1‐month lasting inundation in the lower part of the basin. On the other hand, the prediction overestimated the river discharge by 40% and the inundation water level by 2 m mainly due to the neglect of the evapotranspiration effect. The post‐flood simulation improved its accuracy by up to 10% for river discharges and 1 m for peak inundation water levels, but it did not lead to better agreement of flood extents with those based on the remote sensing. Further study is recommended to improve accuracy for modelling of spatial extent of flooding. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis with different input suggested what information should be prioritised for emergency response‐type flood simulations.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Di Baldassarre, Giuliano;Schumann, Guy;Bates, Paul
通讯作者：
Bates, Paul