The science of global warming
The science of global warming
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全球变暖的科学
DOI：
10.1179/isr.2001.26.4.247
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发表时间：
2001
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
J. Houghton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Houghton
有强有力的科学证据表明，由于人类活动，特别是化石燃料、煤、石油和天然气的燃烧，大气中二氧化碳和其他温室气体的浓度增加，地球表面的平均温度正在上升。全球变暖将导致气候的重大变化，其中许多将以有害的方式影响人类社区。就二十一世纪可能的全球气候变化模式而言，如果不采取任何缓解行动，全球平均气温可能会上升约1·5至5·5°C，海平面可能会上升约半米（范围0·1-0·9米）。水文循环可能会更加剧烈（在某些地方导致更频繁和更严重的洪水和干旱），气候变化的速度可能比地球在过去至少一万年中经历的要大得多。特别是对于这种快速的变化，许多生态系统和人类将难以适应。世界科学家已通过政府间气候变化专门委员会采取行动，尽可能全面地评估有关基础科学和影响的知识，包括评估不确定性。世界各国政府在1992年的地球首脑会议和随后的缔约方会议上，特别是1997年的京都会议上，也采取了行动，制定了《气候变化框架公约》（FCCC）。为了缓解气候变化，《气候变化框架公约》第2条规定了将大气中温室气体浓度稳定在符合环境和可持续发展需要的水平和时间尺度上的目标。这种稳定最终将要求大幅削减全球排放量，例如二氧化碳排放量，到21世纪世纪后半叶将远低于今天的水平。为了实现所要求的二氧化碳排放量减少，有三种可能性：封存燃烧化石燃料产生的二氧化碳，而不是将其释放到大气中;提高能源生产和使用的效率;以及从非矿物燃料来源提供能源供应。本文将总结气候变化的科学，包括它的证据，并将描述主要影响，到目前为止采取的行动，以及可能需要采取的进一步行动，以减缓气候变化。
Abstract There is strong scientific evidence that the average temperature of the earth's surface is rising as a result of the increased concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere owing to human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, coal, oil, and gas. This global warming will lead to substantial changes of climate, many of which will impact human communities in deleterious ways. In terms of the likely global pattern of climate change over the twenty-first century, in the absence of any mitigating action the global average temperature is likely to rise by between about 1˙5 and 5˙5°C and sea level by about half a metre (range 0˙1–0˙9 m). The hydrological cycle is likely to be more intense (leading in some places to more frequent and more intense floods and droughts) and the rate of climate change is likely to be substantially greater than the earth has experienced over at least the last ten thousand years. It is particularly to this rapid rate of change that it will be difficult for many ecosystems and for humans to adapt. Action has been taken by the world's scientists through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess as thoroughly as possible knowledge regarding the basic science and the impacts, including an assessment of the uncertainties. The world's governments have also taken action in setting up the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC ) at the Earth Summit in 1992 and at subsequent meetings of the parties to that convention, especially that at Kyoto in 1997. In order to mitigate climate change the FCCC in its article 2 has set the objective of stabilisation of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level and on a timescale consistent with the needs both of the environment and of sustainable development. Such stabilisation will eventually demand severe cuts in global emissions, for instance of carbon dioxide, to levels well below today's by the second half of the twenty-first century. To achieve the required reductions in the emissions of carbon dioxide, three possibilities are available, to sequester carbon dioxide resulting from the burning of fossil fuels rather than releasing it to the atmosphere, to become much more efficient in the generation and use of energy, and to provide for energy supply from non-fossil fuel sources. This article will summarise the science of climate change including the evidence for it and will describe the main impacts, the actions taken so far, and the further actions that are likely to be necessary to mitigate climate change.