Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012
Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012
复制标题
重新审视 1975 年至 2012 年的财富效应
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2192085
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Shiller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Case;J. Quigley;R. Shiller
我们重新审视住房财富、金融财富和消费者支出变化之间的联系。我们将 1982 年至 1999 年这 17 年期间按季度观察的美国各州小组扩展到 1975 年至 2012 年第二季度的 37 年期间。使用之前报道的技术，我们估算了自住住房的总价值、金融资产的价值以及每个地理单元随时间的总消费量。我们以水平、一阶差分和误差校正形式估计回归模型，将人均消费与人均收入和财富联系起来。我们发现住房财富对家庭消费具有统计显着性且相当大的影响。这种影响始终大于股市财富对消费的影响。在本文的早期版本中，我们发现当房价上涨时，家庭的支出会增加，但当房价下跌时，我们发现消费并没有显着下降。这里提供的结果和扩展数据现在表明，房价下跌刺激了家庭支出的大幅下降。这项工作隐含的弹性很大。如果实际住房财富的增长与 2001 年至 2005 年期间的增幅相当，那么这四年间将推动家庭支出总计约 4.3%。与 2005 年至 2009 年发生的崩溃相比，实际住房财富的减少将导致约 3.5% 的下降。
We re-examine the links between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-seven year period, 1975 through 2012Q2. Using techniques reported previously, we impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating per capita consumption to per capita income and wealth. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption. This effect is consistently larger than the effect of stock market wealth upon consumption. In our earlier version of this paper we found that households increase their spending when house prices rise, but we found no significant decrease in consumption when house prices fall. The results presented here with the extended data now show that declines in house prices stimulate large and significant decreases in household spending. The elasticities implied by this work are large. An increase in real housing wealth comparable to the rise between 2001 and 2005 would, over the four years, push up household spending by a total of about 4.3%. A decrease in real housing wealth comparable to the crash which took place between 2005 and 2009 would lead to a drop of about 3.5%.
影响因子：
13.7
作者：
Genesove, D;Mayer, C
通讯作者：
Mayer, C