Population analysis predicts a future critical shortage of general surgeons.
Population analysis predicts a future critical shortage of general surgeons.
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人口分析预测未来普通外科医生将严重短缺。
DOI：
10.1016/j.surg.2008.05.019
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
E. C. Ellison
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Thomas E. Williams;E. C. Ellison
1980年至2000年，全国人口从2.27亿增长到2.82亿。到2050年，人口将达到4.2亿，增长50%。1980年至2005年期间，医学院的入学人数没有增加。包括普通外科在内的所有研究生职位的资金上限为1996年的水平，因此几乎没有增加住院医生职位。根据人口分析，我们预测到2010年美国将出现普通外科医生短缺。方法计算每10年外科医生的净供应量。每十年的人口预测是由美国人口普查局的数据确定的。这些计算的假设如下：（1）每100，000人中普通外科医生的比例将与2000年保持相同（7.53/100，000）;（2）研究生培训职位的数量将保持不变;（3）普通外科医生将从委员会认证到退休执业30年;（4）每年将有1000个董事会认证;和（5）这些预测仅限于对抗疗法培训项目。早在2010年，我们预测普通外科医生的潜在短缺将从1,300人增加到2020年的1,875人和2050年的6,000人。结论根据简单的人口计算，如果外科实习生的数量不增加，护理模式保持不变，就不会有足够数量的接受过同种疗法训练的普通外科医生来照顾美国人民。政府必须采取积极措施，增加对外科实习生的资助，以防止这种短缺，并保持获得和服务的水平，继续为美国人口提供高质量的护理。
BACKGROUNDThe nation's population grew from 227,000,000 to 282,000,000 between 1980 and 2000. By 2050, the population will be 420,000,000, an increase of 50%. Between 1980 and 2005, there was no increase in medical school enrollments. The funding of all postgraduate positions including general surgery was capped at 1996 levels, and so there have been few additional residency positions added. Based on a population analysis, we predict there will be a shortage of general surgeons in the United States by 2010.METHODSCalculations were made with regard to the net supply of surgeons for each decade. The projected population for each decade was determined by US Census Bureau figures. The assumptions for these calculations were as follows: (1) the ratio of general surgeons per 100,000 population will remain the same as the year 2000 (7.53/100,000); (2) the number of postgraduate training positions will remain constant; (3) general surgeons will practice 30 years from board certification to retirement; (4) there will be 1000 board certifications a year; and (5) these projections are restricted to allopathic training programs.RESULTSAs early as 2010, we predict a potential shortage of 1,300 general surgeons growing to 1,875 in 2020 and 6,000 in 2050.CONCLUSIONSAccording to simple population calculations, if the number of surgical trainees is not increased and the care model remains constant, there will not be a sufficient number of allopathic-trained general surgeons to care for the American people. The government must take proactive steps to increase the funding for surgery trainees to prevent this shortage and maintain the level of access and service to continue the provision of high quality care for the US population.
影响因子：
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作者：
Frank, E;McMurray, JE;Elon, L
通讯作者：
Elon, L