Risks and Benefits for EAEU from Various Integration Scenarios in Asia- Pacific Region
Risks and Benefits for EAEU from Various Integration Scenarios in Asia- Pacific Region
复制标题
亚太地区各种一体化情景给欧亚经济联盟带来的风险和收益
DOI：
10.18288/1994-5124-2017-2-03
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
V. Sedalishchev
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Knobel;V. Sedalishchev
使用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型 GLOBE v1，我们研究了跨太平洋伙伴关系（TPP）和区域全面经济伙伴关系（RCEP）框架内环太平洋一体化的各种情景。对于所考虑的情景，我们获得了 GDP、总出口和部门产出变化的预测，这些变化对于模型输入参数的变化是稳定的。所考虑的自由贸易区 (FTA) 的 CGE 建模是通过 FTA 成员国相互零进口关税来进行的。由于模型中适用于欧亚经济联盟 (EAEU) 国家的关税值，我们使用了 EAEU 共同关税税率的贸易值加权平均值计算。结果表明，欧亚经济联盟不参与环太平洋一体化对欧亚经济联盟国家经济的积极影响很小。与此同时，参与总体上对所有欧亚经济联盟国家有利，它在关键宏观经济指标上或多或少地带来了明显的收益，尽管它给某些部门带来了风险。只有中国加入TPP的条件下，加入TPP才是对欧亚经济联盟最有利的。由于中国加入TPP的不确定性，欧亚经济联盟的一个不错的选择是加入RCEP。在欧亚经济联盟加入RCEP的情况下，俄罗斯的实际GDP长期预计将增长0.74%（约100亿美元）。对于某些行业来说，某个特定行业的产出水平是否会出现增长或下降的问题的答案取决于一体化的情景——这些行业面临风险：化工、橡胶和塑料制品；机动车辆及零部件；木材和纸制品；纺织品；穿着服装；食品生产部门。
Using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GLOBE v1 we investigate various scenarios of the integration in the Pacific Rim within the framework of the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). For the considered scenarios we obtained forecasts of changes in GDP, aggregate exports and sectoral output, which are stable for changes in input parameters of the model. CGEmodelling of considered Free trade areas (FTA) was performed via mutual zeroingout import tariffs for FTAmember countries. As tariff values applied in the model for countries of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) we used our calculations of trade value weighted averages for Common Customs Tariff rates of EAEU. It was shown that nonparticipation of the EAEU in the Pacific Rim’s integration has a very small positive impact on the economies of the EAEU countries. Meanwhile, participation is generally beneficial for all EAEU countries and it gives more or less noticeable gains in key macroeconomic indicators, though it creates risks for some sectors. Joining TPP will be the most beneficial for EAEU only under the condition of China’s participation in TPP. Due to the uncertainty of China’s joining TPP a good alternative for EAEU is its entry into RCEP. In the case of EAEU’s accession to the RCEP Russia’s real GDP is expected to grow in the longrun by 0,74% (about 10 billion US dollars). For some sectors the answer to the question whether in a particular sector will be observed growth or decline in output levels is determined by the scenario of integration — these sectors are at risk: chemical, rubber and plastic products; motor vehicles and parts; wood and paper products; textiles; wearing apparel; food production sector.