Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index Scores at Age 18 Predict Alcohol Dependence Diagnoses 7 Years Later
Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index Scores at Age 18 Predict Alcohol Dependence Diagnoses 7 Years Later
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1530-0277.2010.01432.x
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Rose, Richard J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dick, Danielle M.;Aliev, Fazil;Rose, Richard J.
背景：罗格斯酒精问题指数（RAPI）被广泛用于评估青少年饮酒相关问题。我们问如何以及RAPI，管理在青春期后期，预测酒精诊断在25岁，在7年follow-up.Methods：在18岁时，以人口为基础的样本芬兰双胞胎完成RAPI邮寄问卷; 597（300名男性）双胞胎，从对不一致和一致的年龄18岁RAPI评分，在25岁时进行了采访的SSAGA，产生DSM-IIIR诊断。分析了RAPI与酒精诊断和症状之间的多元相关性、反应操作特征（ROC）曲线下面积以及青少年RAPI每单位变化的结果诊断比值比。双胞胎对不一致的青少年RAPI和成人诊断允许在家庭内复制的完整样本和单独的sex.Results：近一半的受访双胞胎符合诊断标准酒精依赖（46.2%）或滥用（1.5%）。18岁RAPI评分与诊断（0.52）和症状计数（0.55）显著相关。ROC分析发现，25岁时被诊断为酒精的青少年RAPI评分高于未被诊断为酒精的青少年的概率为74%。青少年18岁时RAPI每单位增加的酒精诊断结果的比值比超过10.0。家庭内比较117双胞胎对不一致的年龄18 RAPI和年龄25酒精诊断复制家庭间的关联。在两个家庭之间和家庭内的分析，RAPI是更多的预测酒精的诊断之间的femines.Conclusions：我们的研究结果提供的证据，包括从信息比较的双胞胎不一致的预测和结果，RAPI分数在青春期后期稳健地预测酒精的诊断在成年早期。因此，我们的研究结果也提供了新的证据，表明成年早期饮酒问题的一个途径是青少年饮酒问题的直接途径。
Background:The Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index (RAPI) is widely used to assess adolescent drinking-related problems. We asked how well RAPI, administered in late adolescence, predicts alcohol diagnoses at age 25 in a 7-year follow-up.Methods:At age 18, a population-based sample of Finnish twins completed RAPI by postal questionnaire; 597 (300 male) twins, from pairs discordant and concordant for age 18 RAPI scores, were interviewed at age 25 with the SSAGA, yielding DSM-IIIR diagnoses. Polychoric correlations between RAPI and alcohol diagnoses and symptoms, the area under the response operator characteristic (ROC) curve, and the odds ratio of outcome diagnosis per unit change in adolescent RAPI were analyzed. Twin pairs discordant for both adolescent RAPI and adult diagnoses permitted within-family replications for the full sample and separately by sex.Results:Nearly half the interviewed twins met diagnostic criteria for alcohol dependency (46.2%) or abuse (1.5%). Age 18 RAPI scores significantly correlated with diagnoses (0.52) and symptom counts (0.55). ROC analysis found a 74% probability that adolescent RAPI scores will be higher among those with an alcohol diagnosis at age 25 than for those without. The odds ratio of outcome alcohol diagnosis per unit increase in adolescent 18 RAPI exceeded 10.0. Within-family comparisons of 117 twin pairs discordant for both age 18 RAPI and age 25 alcohol diagnoses replicated the between-family associations. In both between-family and within-family analyses, RAPI was more predictive of alcohol diagnoses among females.Conclusions:Our results offer evidence, including that from informative comparisons of co-twins discordant for both predictor and outcome, that RAPI scores in late adolescence robustly predict alcohol diagnoses in early adulthood. Accordingly, our results also provide new evidence that one pathway to problem drinking in early adulthood is a direct one from problem drinking in adolescence.