The Top 10 Illusions of Systems Engineering: A Research Agenda
The Top 10 Illusions of Systems Engineering: A Research Agenda
复制标题
系统工程的十大幻想：研究议程
DOI：
10.1016/j.procs.2015.03.033
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Wade
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michael J. Pennock;J. Wade
传统的系统工程以预测和控制为基础。需要进行预测才能获得一定程度的信心，确保设计和制造决策将产生所需的结果。控制对于确保子系统满足总体系统的需求是必要的。虽然这种模式已经成功了几十年，但不断变化的环境带来了两个挑战。首先，系统日益复杂化削弱了系统工程师预测其设计决策结果的能力。其次，由于组成系统的操作和管理独立性，以系统系统的形式互连现有系统的需要对系统工程师实施技术控制的能力提出了挑战。应用基于无效假设的流程不太可能取得理想的结果。本文提出了十大假设，这些假设在当今的系统环境中通常是不切实际的。不幸的是，我们当前的系统工程实践是基于启发式的，而这些假设通常是在航空航天和国防项目的背景下，在过去的半个世纪中获得的，而不是基于坚实的科学知识体系，并且不足以支持该学科的必要转型。因此，研究对于创建支持系统工程新范式的基础至关重要，该范式基于工程系统的现实，在许多情况下，确定性预测和控制不再可能。
Traditional systems engineering is predicated upon prediction and control. Prediction is required to attain some degree of confidence that design and manufacture decisions will yield desired results. Control is necessary to ensure that subsystems meet the needs of the overarching system. While this paradigm was successful for decades, evolving circumstances have resulted in two challenges. First, the increasing complexity of systems has eroded the system engineer's ability to predict the outcome of his or her design decisions. Second, the need to interconnect existing systems in the form of a system of systems challenges the system engineer's ability to exercise technical control because of the operational and managerial independence of the constituent systems. The application of a process predicated on invalid assumptions is not likely to achieve desirable results. This paper presents the top 10 assumptions, which are often illusory in today's systems environment. Unfortunately, our current systems engineering practices are based on heuristics dependent on many of these assumptions, often in the context of aerospace and defense programs, that have been acquired during the past half century, rather than on a solid body of scientific knowledge and are inadequate to support the discipline's necessary transformation. Consequently, research is critical to create the foundations that can support a new paradigm for systems engineering, one that is based on the reality of engineering systems in which deterministic prediction and control are no longer possible in many circumstances.