Debt is Not Free
Debt is Not Free
复制标题
债务并非免费
DOI：
10.5089/9781513523767.001
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yuan Xiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Marialuz Moreno Badia;Paulo A. Medas;Pranav Gupta;Yuan Xiang
随着世界各地公共债务的飙升，人们越来越担心目前的债务水平是否是财政危机的先兆，从而限制了经济低迷时期的政策空间。然而，迄今为止的经验证据并不确定，如果利率保持在低水平，债务的真实成本可能被夸大。为了阐明这一争论，本文使用机器学习技术重新审视了公共债务作为财政危机领先指标的重要性，以解释以前文献中忽略的复杂相互作用。我们发现，公共债务是最重要的危机预测，表现出很强的非线性。此外，超过一定的债务水平，无论利率增长差异如何，发生危机的可能性都会急剧增加。我们的分析还表明，公共债务与通货膨胀和外部失衡的相互作用可能与债务水平一样重要。这些结果虽然不一定意味着因果关系，但表明政府应该警惕高公共债务，即使借贷成本似乎很低。
With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Alaminos, David;Ignacio Peliez, Jose;Fernandez-Gamez, Manuel A.
通讯作者：
Fernandez-Gamez, Manuel A.