An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality
An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality
复制标题
生育率和儿童死亡率的可估计动态随机模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
1984
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
K. Wolpin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Wolpin
在婴儿存活率不确定的环境下，建立了一个关于生命周期生育率的离散选择的有限时域动态随机模型。该模型产生的影响的数量，时间和间隔的儿童。一个易于处理的估计方法开发的线性约束二次效用的情况下，是密切相关的动态优化问题，并将该方法应用于马来西亚家庭数据。估计是基于集成的动态规划模型的行为与最大似然过程的数值解。
This paper develops a finite-horizon dynamic stochastic model of discrete choice with respect to life-cycle fertility within an environment where infant survival is uncertain. The model yields implications for the number, timing, and spacing of children. A tractable estimation method is developed for the linear constraint-quadratic utility case that is intimately tied to the dynamic optimization problem, and the method is applied to Malaysian household data. Estimation is based on integrating the numerical solution of the dynamic programming model of behavior with a maximum likelihood procedure.