Sources of Output Fluctuations During the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression
Sources of Output Fluctuations During the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression
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两次世界大战期间产出波动的根源：大萧条原因的进一步证据
DOI：
10.3386/w4049
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发表时间：
1992
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
G. Karras
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stephen G. Cecchetti;G. Karras
本文将1913年至1940年期间的产出波动分解为总供给冲击和总需求冲击的组成部分。我们估计了许多不同的模型，所有这些模型都产生了质量相似的结果。虽然通常通过假设总需求冲击没有长期实际影响来实现识别，但我们也估计了允许需求冲击永久影响产出的模型。我们的研究结果支持以下三个结论：(i) 1929年11月股市崩盘后，出现了一次大规模的负总需求冲击；（ii）总需求冲击是1931年中后期产出下降的主要原因；（iii）从1931年年中开始，总供给崩溃与严重的银行恐慌同时发生。
This paper decomposes output fluctuations during the 1913 to 1940 period into components resulting from aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks. We estimates a number of different models, all of which yield qualitatively similar results. While identification is normally achieved by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have no long run real effects, we also estimate models that allow demand shocks to permanently affect output. Our findings support the following three conclusions: (i) there was a large negative aggregate demand shock in November 1929, immediately after the stock market crash; (ii) aggregate demand shocks are mainly responsible for the decline in output through mid to late 1931; (iii) beginning in mid 1931 there is an aggregate supply collapse that coincides with the onset on severe bank panics.