Multi-hazard climate risk projections for the United States
Multi-hazard climate risk projections for the United States
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-020-04385-y
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Johnson Gaither, Cassandra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Binita, K. C.;Shepherd, J. M.;Johnson Gaither, Cassandra
气候风险是气候灾害、暴露和脆弱性的结果（IPCC 2014）。在这里，我们评估未来（2040-2049年）的气候风险，为整个美国相邻的县一级与一个新的气候风险指数集成多种危害，暴露和脆弱性。未来的天气和气候灾害的特点是频率的热浪，寒流，干燥，强降水事件沿着异常的温度和降水使用高分辨率（4公里）降尺度的气候预测。暴露的特点是预测人口，基础设施和建筑表面容易受到多种危害，包括海平面上升和风暴潮。脆弱性的特点是预测对气候灾害最敏感的人口群体。我们发现佛罗里达、加州、墨西哥湾沿岸中部和北大西洋未来的气候风险很高。然而，该风险的影响因地区而异。预计佛罗里达将同样受到气候风险三个组成部分的严重打击。路易斯安那州、得克萨斯州、密西西比州和亚拉巴马州等海湾各州的沿海县由于高暴露和危险而处于高气候风险之中。高暴露和脆弱性导致加州各县面临高气候风险。这一方法可以指导规划者将目标锁定在风险最高的国家，以及最适合采用减少接触或保护脆弱人口的适应战略的国家。
Climate risk is a consequence of climate hazards, exposure, and the vulnerability (IPCC 2014). Here, we assess future (2040-2049) climate risk for the entire contiguous US at the county level with a novel climate risk index integrating multiple hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities. Future, weather and climate hazards are characterized as frequency of heat wave, cold spells, dryer, and heavy precipitation events along with anomalies of temperature and precipitation using high resolution (4 km) downscaled climate projections. Exposure is characterized by projections of population, infrastructure, and built surfaces prone to multiple hazards including sea level rise and storm surges. Vulnerability is characterized by projections of demographic groups most sensitive to climate hazards. We found Florida, California, the central Gulf Coast, and North Atlantic at high climate risk in the future. However, the contributions to this risk vary regionally. Florida is projected to be equally hard hit by the three components of climate risk. The coastal counties in the Gulf states of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama are at high climate risk due to high exposure and hazard. High exposure and vulnerability drive high climate risk in California counties. This approach can guide planners in targeting counties at most risk and where adaptation strategies to reduce exposure or protect vulnerable populations might be best applied.