Uncertainty in hottest years ranking: analysis of Tibetan Plateau surface air temperature
Uncertainty in hottest years ranking: analysis of Tibetan Plateau surface air temperature
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DOI：
10.1080/16742834.2017.1330646
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发表时间：
2017-06
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Wei Hua;Kai Yang;Guangzhou Fan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wei Hua;Kai Yang;Guangzhou Fan
地表气温的变化可以通过热浪等极端气候事件直接影响水文、农业和生态系统。因此，研究最热年份的排名对改善气候变化适应策略具有重要意义。Wilcoxon sign -rank检验表明，青藏高原有记录以来最热的前10年主要出现在1998年以后。最热的前三个年份分别是2006年、2009年和2010年，但它们之间几乎没有显著差异。当同时考虑采样误差和观测误差时，只有5年是非零概率最热的年份，其中2006年（~47.231%）、2009年（~40.390%）和2010年（~12.376%）的概率最高。同样，对于排名前10的年份，我们的结果显示，由Wilcoxon sign -rank检验得出的排名前10的年份的概率都在10%以上，而2001年和2012年的概率分别为3%和4%。
Abstract Changes in surface air temperature can directly affect hydrology, agriculture, and ecosystems through extreme climate events such as heat waves. For this reason, and to improve climate change adaptation strategies, it is important to investigate the ranking of hottest years. In this study, the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Monte Carlo simulation are used to estimate the ranking of the hottest years for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades, and the uncertainty in the ranking. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test shows that the top 10 hottest years on record over the TP mainly occur after 1998. The top three hottest years are ranked as 2006, 2009, and 2010, but there is almost no significant difference between them. When both sampling and observational errors are considered, only five years have a non-zero probability of being the hottest year, with the three highest probabilities being for the years 2006 (~47.231%), 2009 (~40.390%), and 2010 (~12.376%). Similarly, with respect to a given year that is among the 10 hottest years, our results show that all the years among the ranks of 1–10 resulting from the Wilcoxon signed-rank test have probabilities above 10%, while the years 2001 and 2012 have probabilities of 3% and 4%.