Risk Assessment of Trade Liberalization with Asian Countries in the Context of Russia’s Policy of Pivot to Asia
Risk Assessment of Trade Liberalization with Asian Countries in the Context of Russia’s Policy of Pivot to Asia
复制标题
俄罗斯重返亚洲政策背景下与亚洲国家贸易自由化的风险评估
DOI：
10.17323/1996-7845-2018-03-03
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Grigoriy Kalachigin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Likhacheva;Grigoriy Kalachigin
与亚洲国家的贸易自由化是俄罗斯和欧亚经济联盟（EAEU）与亚太地区（APR）经济和贸易联系议程上的关键问题。然而，自由贸易协定（FTA）的签署在俄罗斯和EAEU伙伴国家传统上一直受到负面影响，因为当时的贸易政策非常保守。本研究模拟了俄罗斯与韩国、新加坡、印度、日本和中国货物贸易全面自由化的情况，以评估此类协议的风险。这些国家是根据EAEU目前的谈判轨道和俄罗斯与APR国家的对外贸易分析选择的。通过使用World Integrated Trade Solution提供的SMART软件构建的部分均衡模型进行模拟，文章重点介绍了俄罗斯完全取消进口关税（考虑到敏感的关税项目）后，预计进口量将增加的主要产品类别。此外，作者得出结论，在这种情况下，2016年印度和韩国产品的进口将增加约7.5%，从日本和新加坡的进口分别增加7%和6.5%。模拟结果显示，从中国的进口增长了8%，按绝对值计算，超过了目前与印度和新加坡贸易的总和。这证实了在短期和中期内与中国启动FTA谈判的可能性很低。本文得到了俄罗斯科学基金会资助No 17-18-01577“发展大欧亚共同体和俄罗斯与该地区国家的双边伙伴关系战略”的支持。
Trade liberalization with Asian countries is a key issue on the agenda of Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union’s (EAEU) economic and trade connectivity with the Asia-Pacific region (APR). However, the signing of free trade agreements (FTAs) has traditionally been negatively perceived in both Russia and EAEU partner countries because of the extremely conservative prevailing trade policy. This study simulated the situation of full liberalization of Russian trade in goods with Rep. of Korea (here and after: Korea), Singapore, India, Japan and China to assess the risks of such agreements. The countries were selected on the basis of the current negotiating tracks of the EAEU and the analysis of Russian foreign trade with the APR countries. The simulation was performed using a partial equilibrium model built with the SMART software provided by the World Integrated Trade Solution.The article highlights key product groups, increases in imports of which can be expected with a complete abolition of import duties by Russia (taking into account sensitive tariff lines). In addition, the authors conclude that in this case, imports of Indian and Korean products will increase by approximately 7.5%, and imports from Japan and Singapore, respectively, by 7% and 6.5% of the cost of imports from these countries in 2016. The simulation showed an 8% increase in imports from China, which in absolute terms exceeds the current level of trade with India and Singapore combined. This confirms the low probability of starting the FTA negotiations with China in short and medium term.The article was supported by Russian Science Foundation Grant No 17-18-01577 “Developing the Community of Greater Eurasia and Strategy of Russia’s Bilateral Partnership with Countries of the Region”.