Modelling the comparative productivity and profitability of grass and legume systems of silage production in northern Europe
Modelling the comparative productivity and profitability of grass and legume systems of silage production in northern Europe
复制标题
对北欧青贮饲料生产的草和豆类系统的相对生产力和盈利能力进行建模
DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2494.2004.00427.x
复制
发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
C. Doyle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Topp;C. Doyle
为模拟英国的草生产而开发的现有草生长机械模型已扩展到包括各种草-豆类混合物，并使用来自十五个地点的一系列实验的实验数据来预测北欧一系列地点的比较产量。具体而言，对禾本科植物 (Lolium perenne L.)、白三叶草 (Trifolium repens L.)、红三叶草 (T. pratense L.)、苜蓿 (Medicago sativa L.)、莲花 (Lotus corniculatus L.) 和山羊豆 (Galega orientalis Lam.) 的相对产量进行了预测。结果表明，该模型可以模拟饲料作物之间的产量差异，这与观察到的排名一致。然而，总产量的预测比单产的预测更准确，国家的预测比单个地点的预测更准确，单一栽培的预测比草豆类混合物的预测更准确。尽管如此，结果似乎足够稳健，可用于预测北欧不同农业气候区的产量生产率。通过对饲料生产成本和经济价值的估计，还可以评估其相对盈利能力。
研究表明，红三叶草，无论是单独种植还是与草混合种植，在经济上都优于所有基于纯草田的青贮系统，甚至是接受 400 kg N ha−1 的青贮系统。白三叶草和苜蓿也始终比草基系统更有利可图，接收 200 kg N ha−1。相对而言，卢塞恩在该地区的南部和东部似乎更有利可图，而白三叶草在北部和西部的表现则优于卢塞恩。在该地区的北部和东部，有一些证据表明山羊豆也有希望作为青贮作物，但莲花在北欧的环境条件下并不可行。
A pre-existing mechanistic model of grass growth, developed to simulate grass production in the UK, was extended to include a variety of grass–legume mixtures and used to predict comparative yields across a range of sites in northern Europe, using experimental data from a series of experiments at fifteen sites. Specifically, predictions were made of the comparative yields of grass (Lolium perenne L.), white clover (Trifolium repens L.), red clover (T. pratense L.), lucerne (Medicago sativa L.), lotus (Lotus corniculatus L.) and galega (Galega orientalis Lam.). The results indicated that the model could generate simulated differences in yields between forage crops, which accorded with observed rankings. However, the predictions were more accurate for total yields than individual cuts, for a country than for an individual site, and for monocultures than for grass–legume mixtures. Nevertheless, the results appeared sufficiently robust to be used to prepare forecasts of yield productivity in different agro-climatic zones in northern Europe. Using estimates of the production costs and economic values for the forages, it was also possible to assess their comparative profitability.
The study indicated that red clover, whether grown singly or in a mixture with grass economically outperformed all silage systems based on pure grass swards, even those receiving 400 kg N ha−1. White clover and lucerne were also consistently more profitable than grass-based systems, receiving 200 kg N ha−1. In relative terms, lucerne appeared to be more profitable in the south and east of the region, while white clover outperformed lucerne in the north and west. In the north and east of the region, there was some evidence that galega might also hold promise as a silage crop, but lotus was not found to be viable under north European environmental conditions.