An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models
An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli3799.1
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发表时间：
2006-07-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Held, Isaac M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Soden, Brian J.;Held, Isaac M.
利用一组协调的21世纪气候变化实验，比较了耦合海洋-大气模式中的气候反馈。水汽在所有模式中提供最大的正反馈，其强度与水汽混合比恒定相对湿度变化所期望的一致。来自云和地表反照率的反馈也发现在所有模式中都是正的，而唯一稳定的（负）反馈来自温度响应。已观测到并显示与不同区域地表变暖型态有关的大模式间递减率反馈差异。与前人的研究一致，发现在所有模式中温度和水汽的垂直变化都是紧密耦合的，重要的是，这表明模式间在递减率和水汽反馈之和上的差异很小。相比之下，云反馈的模式间差异是当前气候敏感性预测的最大不确定性来源。
The climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models are compared using a coordinated set of twenty-first-century climate change experiments. Water vapor is found to provide the largest positive feedback in all models and its strength is consistent with that expected from constant relative humidity changes in the water vapor mixing ratio. The feedbacks from clouds and surface albedo are also found to be positive in all models, while the only stabilizing ( negative) feedback comes from the temperature response. Large intermodel differences in the lapse rate feedback are observed and shown to be associated with differing regional patterns of surface warming. Consistent with previous studies, it is found that the vertical changes in temperature and water vapor are tightly coupled in all models and, importantly, demonstrate that intermodel differences in the sum of lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks are small. In contrast, intermodel differences in cloud feedback are found to provide the largest source of uncertainty in current predictions of climate sensitivity.