Assessing decarbonization pathways and their implications for energy security policies in Japan
Assessing decarbonization pathways and their implications for energy security policies in Japan
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评估脱碳路径及其对日本能源安全政策的影响
DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2016.1155042
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
T. Masui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Oshiro;M. Kainuma;T. Masui
对于像日本这样化石燃料资源不足的国家来说，中长期的气候政策不仅要满足脱碳的要求，还要满足在可再生能源和核电受到限制的情况下的能源安全的要求。本研究使用AIM/Enduse模型，结合日本最新的能源和气候政策，对2050年前的脱碳路径的可行性及其对能源安全的影响进行了评估。该分析表明，即使没有核电，到2050年深度脱碳在技术上也是可行的，其基础是三个要素：能源效率的提高、低碳电力和终端使用部门的电气化。从长远来看，这些脱碳途径也有助于加强能源安全，将进口依赖减少到一次能源总量的一半以下，并将化石燃料的进口费用与目前水平相比减少约70%。值得注意的是，可再生能源可以在满足气候和能源安全要求方面发挥重要的战略作用。然而，在中期（到2030年），虽然温室气体排放量比1990年减少了14-20%，但进口依赖性相对稳定在今天的水平，特别是在没有重启核电的情况下。鉴于可再生能源在中期的潜力有限，有人认为，核能的供应将对碳密度和能源安全产生负面影响，在可预见的未来，将需要加强化石燃料安全的政策，包括燃料来源和供应路线的多样化。考虑到日本本土化石燃料资源稀缺，核能供应不确定，可再生能源可在取代不减的化石燃料方面发挥重要的战略作用，这将有助于满足长期的气候和能源安全要求。然而，可再生能源的潜力不足以在2030年之前消除对化石燃料的需求;因此，无法获得核能将大大影响能源安全。因此，中期政策仍需要加强化石燃料的能源安全，包括燃料来源和供应路线的多元化，以及缓解价格波动的影响。
For countries without sufficient fossil fuel resources such as Japan, climate policies in the mid- to long term need to satisfy requirements not only for decarbonisation but also for energy security in the context of limitations on renewable energies and nuclear power. This study assesses the feasibility of decarbonization pathways to 2050 and their effects on energy security, considering the latest energy and climate policies in Japan using the AIM/Enduse model. The analysis illustrates that deep decarbonization by 2050 is technically feasible even without nuclear power based on three elements: energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon electricity and electrification in end-use sectors. These decarbonization pathways, in the long term, could also contribute to enhanced energy security, reducing import dependency to less than a half of the total primary energy and reducing import bills for fossil fuels by around 70% compared with the current level. Notably, renewable energies could play a strategically significant role in satisfying both climate and energy security requirements. In the mid-term (to 2030), however, although GHG emissions are reduced by 14–20% from 1990 levels, import dependency is relatively stable at today's levels, particularly without the restart of nuclear power. Given the limited potential for renewable energies in the mid-term, it is suggested that the availability of nuclear power will have negative impacts on carbon intensity and energy security, and policies to enhance the security of fossil fuels, including diversification of fuel sources and supply routes, will be required for the foreseeable future. Policy relevance Considering the scarcity of indigenous fossil fuel resources and the uncertain availability of nuclear power in Japan, renewable energy could play a strategically significant role in replacing unabated fossil fuels, which would contribute to satisfying both climate and energy security requirements in the long term. However, the renewable energy potential is insufficient to eliminate the requirement for fossil fuels by 2030; therefore the unavailability of nuclear power would affect energy security considerably. Thus, policies in the mid-term would still require enhancement of the energy security of fossil fuels, including the diversification of fuel sources and supply routes, as well as alleviation of the impacts of price volatility.
关于可再生能源和减缓气候变化的特别报告，政府间气候变化专门委员会第三工作组
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kamimoto Masayuki(共著),O. Edenhofer;R. Pichs-Madruga;Y. Sokona;K. Seyboth;P. Matschoss;S. Kadner;T. Zwickel;P. Eickemeier;G. Hansen;S. Schlomer;C. von Stechow
通讯作者：
C. von Stechow