A Simulation-Based Dynamic Scheduling Method in Project Cost Estimation Process
A Simulation-Based Dynamic Scheduling Method in Project Cost Estimation Process
复制标题
项目造价估算过程中基于仿真的动态调度方法
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-319-69832-8_15
复制
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Masaaki Muraki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nobuaki Ishii;Yuichi Takano;Masaaki Muraki
由于项目价格是在项目开工前确定的，项目成本估算是EPC(工程-采购-施工)承包商在竞争性投标情况下接受有利可图项目的关键工作。承包商应投入大量时间和资源对客户的项目订单进行准确的成本估算。然而，任何承包商都不可能在所有订单上投入大量的时间和资源，因为这些资源通常是有限的。因此，承包商必须在每个订单到达时动态地决定订单的投标或非投标，并将有限的资源分配给选定的订单。本文借鉴状态相关作业动态调度的一般模型，建立了项目成本估算过程的仿真模型。在此基础上，以承包商利润最大化为目标，设计了一种基于仿真的项目成本估算过程的动态调度方法。该方法根据承包商的资源利用率和订单的预期利润，动态地选择订单，并将有限的资源分配给这些订单。通过仿真实验验证了该方法的有效性。
Since project price is determined before the start of a project, project cost estimation is a critical work for the EPC (Engineering-Procurement-Construction) contractor in accepting profitable projects in competitive bidding situations. The contractor should devote significant time and resources to accurate cost estimation of project orders from clients. However, it is impossible for any contractor to devote significant time and resources to all the orders because such resources are usually limited. For this reason, the contractor must dynamically decide bid or no-bid on the orders at each order arrival, and allocate the limited resources to the chosen orders. In this paper, we develop a simulation model of the project cost estimation process by reference to a generic model of dynamic scheduling for the state-dependent work. Then we devise a simulation-based method for dynamic scheduling in the project cost estimation process by using the model to maximize the contractor’s profits. The method dynamically selects orders and allocates the limited resources to them, on the basis of the contractor’s resource utilization, and the expected profit from the order. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through simulation experiments.